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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish immediate term / bullish medium term

During morning trade oil futures traded slightly higher. According to market participants, investors worries have been relieved by reports that EU leaders had been able to find an agreement regarding the next financial aide for Greece . This relief not only influenced the capital markets but also showed its effect in the oil complex. Furthermore, it seems likely that also the American government and opposition will find a solution regarding the raise of the debt ceiling.

Yesterday morning, oil futures initially retreated. The lower Chinese PMI and profit taking regarding the euro created some downward potential. In the course of the afternoon this tendency changed and oil prices tested medium term resistances. The news about EU leaders agreeing on a new large aid package for Greece led to optimism throughout capital markets. Stocks, the Euro and oil futures all benefited from this optimism, reaching new highs of this week in the evening. In the area of medium term resistances having defined oil futures' range for weeks, buying interest at ICE ebbed. Only NYMEX Crude Oil breached the 100 dollar mark, if only briefly. Given the strong technical resistances, market participants took profits later in the evening. Reports on the USA still not being able to agree on spending cuts and a raise of the debt ceiling added to this correction downward. At night, oil futures thus settled lower as their rally during the afternoon led to expect.

ICE Gasoil contract for August settled at 983.25 dollars on Thursday. This was 5.50 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 55,800 contracts, the traded volume on average.

The stochastic indicator remains bullish this morning, whereas the RSI does not show any impetus. Chart analysts thus still assess the situation as slightly bullish expect and further tests of medium term resistances. Ahead of the weekend, market participants will avoid larger risk positions. Therefore a sustained transgression of up to now strong resistances may only be the case if there is new impetus from fundamentals. Temporary upward potential at ICE is seen until 986.25 dollars for Gasoil and 119.50 for Brent. At NYMEX upward potential is seen until 100.15, which was yesterday's high. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 97.40 dollars, its first resistance at 100.15 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 119.25 dollars, its first support is at 116.60 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil prices only changed marginally during electronic morning trade. After last night's profit taking, oil futures initially trade slightly lower. Investors wait for the opening of the European markets, for further momentum from foreign exchange and for news regarding the US debt crisis. Trading is rather flat at NYMEX for this time of day.

APIs: crude oil -5.2; distillates +1.1; gasoline +2.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +2.0%

DOEs: crude oil -3.7; distillates +3.4; gasoline +0.8 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +2.3%

Forecasts: Crude oil -1.2; distillates +0.8; gasoline +/- 0.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-7)

380 cst $658
180 cst $688
MDO $1014

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 21-7)

380 cst $661
180 cst $692
MDO $1018

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing back up with WTI +$1.62. Singapore paper keeps tracking crude, gaining with +$4.05 for 180cst and +$3.95 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$4.00 and 380cst +$3.90 with MGO Aug contracts at +$0.20 and for Sep at +$0.18. The cargo market is starting to react to crude's bearish momentum Yesterday, losing with 180cst -$3.12, 380cst -$4.13 and MGO -$0.12.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell by more than -$3.0/mt following crude at the Platts window yesterday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a build of +2.18 mbbl to 19.69 mbbl. The delivered premiums slipped to $6.0/mt above cargo prices. Bunker swaps gained $3 – 4/mt again lifting the entire curve up. Front month prices were slightly weaker compared to the 2012 papers. Rotterdam FOB Barges 3,5% were a few cents stronger than Singapore 180cst Cargo FOB papers. Both markets are trading up this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $674
180 cst $682
MDO $975

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-7)

380 cst $673
180 cst $711
MDO $1071

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 661
(1.0 %) :$ 709
180cst: $ 685
(1.0 %):$ 750
MGO 0.1%S: $ 988