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Volatility ahead of oil inventory data and U.S. retail sales (Brent: $59.5)

Oil prices briefly touched $60 yesterday morning, but are now down to around current level of $59.5 (at time of writing).

The main economic data driver today could be the publishing of the U.S. retail sales data this afternoon - if the data improves, market expectations to an interest rate hike in June will increase.

Also, the weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute will be published tonight. A build of around 3.7 mio. barrels is expected - some volatility could arise if data differs from expectations. The Energy Information Administration has announced an expected decrease in shale oil production in May compared to April (4.98 mio. barrels/day).

The situation in Yemen remains chaotic and in Iraq, rebels managed to overtake the country’s largest refinery after months of siege.

Overnight, the Chinese GDP will be published; data yesterday showed slowing growth in the huge country. News of China exporting crude in March could point to the country’s storage capacity being filled.

Economic data Tuesday 14 April:

10:30 GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar)
10:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Mar)
10:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Mar)
11:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
14:00 USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
14:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Mar)
14:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
14:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Mar)
14:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
16:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb)
22:30 USD API Weekly Crude Stock
22:30 USD API Weekly Distillates Stocks
22:30 USD API Weekly Gasoline Stock