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Brent Crude fell on Monday as a promising U.S. jobs report pushed the dollar up, offsetting geopolitical tensions and the threat of output cuts in Libya and Iraq.

Oil futures at ICE started with a slightly strong tendency on Friday morning and were supported by the bullish news concerning Libya and Iraq. Groups of the IS attacked oil installations in both countries. WTI marks in a rather narrow range as market players were waiting for US labor market data on Friday afternoon. These figures were surprisingly positive and registered a decrease in the unemployment rate and an increase in new jobs. Usually, positive US figures support oil prices as they indicate an increase in oil consumption but the influence of the forex market predominated on Friday. The US dollar jumped considerably upwards making in dollar negotiated oil futures more expensive for traders outside the United States. Those market players used the situation to take profit from their long positions weighing on the price level at ICE and NYMEX. Brent and WTI breached their key supports at 59.85 USD and 50.50 USD. Therefore, technical selling pressure increased like we announced in Friday morning news. Gasoil wasn't able to breach its key support. That's why selling pressure didn't increase as strong as for crude oil futures. Finally, futures settled lower on Friday evening in London and New York. The Baker Hughes report concerning active US oil rigs was released on Friday night after FS office hours registering a fresh decrease in US oil installations. This was no surprise and prices hardly had any influence on prices, therefore.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 582.25 USD on Friday, this is +1.25 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 23,700 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The selling signal of the WTI's stochastic indicator has been confirmed once again after the indicator breached the 50 line. Therefore, the indicator stays bearish for the moment while there are no fresh signals at the Brent and Gasoil chart. The RSI doesn't trigger any signal this morning still marking at the neutral level. Fresh downside was triggered at the Brent and the WTI chart by Friday's breach of their key support. The fact that Gasoil and Brent dropped below their 21 day moving average indicates fresh downside as well. Therefore, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex far below average: Futures considerably eased at the beginning of this week as the strong dollar still weigh on oil futures and as Goldman Sachs has published a bearish forecast. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the strikes at US oil refineries and Iranian nuclear negotiations and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-3)
380cst $329
180cst $455
MGO $648

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 9-3)
380cst $344
180cst $397
MGO $671

Singapore (delivered indications 9-3)

WTI is losing with -$1.55. Singapore paper is down with -$8.50 for 180cst with -$8.25 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$8.75 and 380cst with -$9.25 with MGO contracts Mar losing with -$1.20 and in Apr with -$1.28. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$2.06, 380cst with +$2.02 and MGO bearish with -$0.20.

380cst $344
180cst $360
MGO $572

Fujairah (delivered indications 9-3)

380cst $358
180cst $392
MGO $760

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $309
MGO 0.1%S: $552