Oil futures have slightly climbed this morning, but midday, they started to lose some ground on the announcement that the euro zone's member states and six other European countries were able to agree on a treaty which is to reinforce budget discipline. Before, the 27 EU countries were unable to find an agreement. Despite of a slight progress, experts still consider the situation in Europethe greatest risk factor for the development at the markets. Currently, oil futures have pared earlier losses on a surging euro. The European currency rose after the German Bundesbank had declared it was ready to support the IMF with bilateral loans.
Yesterday, Oil futures started out steadier at ICE and NYMEX Thursday morning, after supports had proved strong Wednesday evening. As investors waited for the ECB's interest rate decision and the following press conference, upward potential were limited, however. The euro and equities likewise remained within their ranges and did not give any impulsions to the oil complex. As expected, the ECB has lowered its benchmarkt interest rate to 1.0%. In the early afternoon, oil futures continued edging higher on better-than-expected American employment data. Later, oil prices have plummeted, however, after the ECB's president Mario Draghi has denied further bond buying as well as extraordinary credits for the IMF referring to the ECB's principles. Oil futures have marked considerable losses and have breached several supports. G.Oil, Brent and the WTI Crude have even fallen through long term supports at 950.00 dollars (G.Oil), at 108.15 dollars (Brent) and 99.75 dollars (WTI). This triggered several technical selling orders increasing the pressure on oil prices. The disappointing result of the latest stress test for some banks has additionally weighed on sentiment causing some profit taking. Thus, oil futures marked new lows shortly before the settlement.
ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 948.25 dollars on Thursday. This was 9.00 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 43,300 contracts the traded volume was below average.
The stochastic oscillator is bearish both at NYMEX and at ICE this morning. After several supports have been breached technical analysts assess the situation slightly bearish. Against the backdrop of the correction down yesterday afternoon and the pending details regarding the results of the EU's summit, market participants still remain cautious. Should the result not meet expectations, the WTI crude might however fall to 94 or 95 dollars, analysts say. The first support for the WTI is at 97.35 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 99.05 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 108.65 dollars, its first support is at 107.05 dollars.
U.S.
Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures consolidate on a low level in Asiaand on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. After yesterday's slide oil futures have not recovered yet and trade near yesterday's lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average. Market participants now eye the opening of the European session and details regarding the results of the EU's summit that are expected in the course of the day. Later in the afternoon US economic indicators might provide for additional impetus.
API's: Crude oil -5.0; distillates +1.7; gasoline +6.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +3.3%
DOE's; Crude oil +1.3; distillates +2.5; gasoline +5.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +3.1
Forecasts: Crude oil -0.8; distillates +0.8; gasoline +0.9 million barrels vs previous week
Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-12)
380cst $629
180cst $667
MGO $978
Very tight avails for 180 cst
New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 8-12)
380cst $631
180cst $670
MGO $979
Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)
Crude is dropping, losing with WTI -$2.98. Singapore paper is reflecting the drop losing with -$21.50 for 180cst and -$21.50 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst -$17.75 and 380cst -$18.25 with MGO Dec contracts at -$2.15 and for Jan -$2.14. The cargo market is only starting to react to the bearishnes, losing with 180cst -$2.66, 380cst -$3.93 and MGO -$0.64.
The Singapore heavy fuel oil inventory reported a draw of -0.46 mbbl to 17.17 mbbl as supplies remain tight and demand is said to be robust. The delivered bunker premiums were around $17.00 above the cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost $8.00-9.00/mt along the curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.
High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $659
180 cst $667
MGO $925
Fujairah (delivered indications 9-12)
380cst $686
180cst $717
MGO $1045
Avails issue are sustaining the market.
ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)
Northwest European bunker values softened Tuesday following weaker 3.5% Fob Rotterdam barges, as oil prices were struggling for direction over the day. However, trading activity for bunker fuel oil in most of the NWE bunker hubs was supported despite oil market participants awaiting fresh news about the Eurozone. High sulfur fuel oil supplies for prompt inquiries in ARA remained tight as at least three VLCCs were expected to load for the Asian market by the end of the month. LSFO in Antwerp remained very tight as local suppliers were keeping their stocks low before the end of the year.
Rotterdam
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 632
(1.0 %) :$ 668
180cst: $ 647
(1.0 %):$ 679
MGO 0.1%S: $942
