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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish immediate term / bearish medium term

Oil prices rose above first resistance lines this afternoon, buoyed by a weaker dollar against the Euro, which received support from positive euro zone gross domestic product that rose more than expected in the first quarter.

After Wednesday's hefty losses, oil prices started strong into the day, easing early in electronic computer trading to hit new intraday lows on a bearish IEA report, but recovered quickly after the opening of the session in New York as the weaker dollar lent support. Worse-than-expected US economic indicators weighed on the greenback and helped the euro up. The rise was stopped only in after-hour trading when a rising risk aversion limited the losses of the dollar.

OPEC oil production fell by 235,000 barrels a day in April and remains 1.3 million barrels a day below its level in January, before the conflict began in Libya. "Libyan supply will remain absent from the market for the rest of 2011," the IEA said. A production increase at the June OPEC meeting is unlikely given the unusual level of agreement between the most hawkish members of the group, such as Iran, and the doves, such as Saudi Arabia. "There appears a near-unanimous consensus among OPEC members that supplies to the market are adequate," the IEA stated.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 913.50 dollars Thursday night. This was 23.00 dollars below Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 120,600 deals well above average.

The two lines of the Stochastic indicator on the gasoil, brent and WTI chart have crossed and give a selling signal while the RSI is in oversold territory which indicates a possible upward correction and neutralizes the Stochastic's signals. But analysts regard the dollar as the major factor for oil price development today. The Stochastic's selling signal would only be triggered by a rising dollar. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 95.25 dollars, the first resistance at 100.50 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 114.55 dollars, its first support is at 110.15 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil prices traded lower in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, WTI crude dropped below 98.00 dollars a barrel, on a stronger dollar. Currently futures are recovering as the dollar weakens and the euro is regaining ground lost earlier in the session. The traded volume is on average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-5)

380 cst $626
180 cst $661
MDO $954

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 12-5)

380 cst $628
180 cst $663
MDO $958

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is countering the recent drops, gaining with WTI +$3.08 Singapore paper is mirroring it with +$14.77 for 180 cst and +$13.85 for 380 cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$14.40 and 380cst +$13.90 with MGO May contracts at +$1.60 and for Jun at +$1.60 The cargo market is fully reacting to this week's bearishness with 180cst -$25.41 380cst -$25.42 and MGO -$4.96.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell a massive $25.00 yesterday during the Platts window as crude was trading soft. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a draw of 0.78 mbbl to 21.04 mbbl. The bunker delivered premiums inched higher app. $9.0 above cargo prices yesterday as bunker demands were strong with buyers keen to fulfil their requirements. Bunker fuel swaps again closed lower yesterday. Both Rotterdam and Singapore papers lost app. $8.00-10.00/mt along the curve with losses slightly more pronounced at the backend of the forward curve. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $643
180 cst $654
MDO $947

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-5)

380cst: $645
180cst: $673
MGO: $1046

Rotterdam

Yesterday in the MOC hsfo was traded between 604.50-606 usd and lsfo between 634-635 usd.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $615
(1.0%): $645
180cst: $642
(1.0%): $676 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $927