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As expected, Iran has fulfilled the preconditions of the intermediate nuclear accord with the 5+1 powers. Therefore, the first sanctions against the country were lifted on Monday. However, market players had already priced in this development over the past few weeks, which is why the lifting of sanctions did not have any sustainably bearish impact on oil markets so far, the more so as embargoes for Iran's oil sector still haven't been lifted.

With the US holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), financial markets began the week rather calmly. Oil futures slightly retreated in the course of the day weighed down a little by disappointing Chinese economic data. Still, the traded range remained rather tight, in all. In the USA, electronic trading was possible but NYMEX floor trade stayed closed. But only a few investors traded on the electronic platform yesterday. The lower volumes caused some volatility yesterday afternoon but profit taking remained temporary as market players avoided larger risk positions - long and short. Eventually, oil markets showed a slightly softer tendency but futures ICE and NYMEX settled nearly unchanged as important cues were lacking and there were no important indicators due.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 907.75 USD on Monday. This was -8.50 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 26,600 deals, the traded volume far below average.

The RSI still doesn't give any signal whereas the lines of the stochastic indicator have already crossed at the WTI chart giving a selling signal. However, the February WTI contract is going to expire tonight and so the bearish signal isn't that reliable as many investors rolled their position to the next front month (March). At ICE, short-term uptrends have formed that are still intact. Therefore we expect these quotations to continue trading within these uptrends and assess the technical constellation as neutral. If the lines of the stochastic indicator also cross at the Brent and the Gasoil chart in the course of the day confirming the selling signal at the WTI chart, the technical constellation will turn bearish, however, prompting investors to take some profits.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Since trading volumes are expected to increase today, oil futures edged higher this morning. Since there are no new fundamental cues, they have stayed below yesterday's highs, so far. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the development at stock markets waiting for new cues from forex markets. They will also keep eying the situation in Libya, Iraq and South Sudan. As to economic data, the ZEW's economic sentiment index is due to be released.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-1)
380cst $579
180cst $650
MGO $965

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-1)
380cst $591
180cst $655
MGO $992

Singapore

WTI is cooling slightly, climbing with +$0.55. Singapore paper is slightly bullish with +$0.75 for 180cst and +$0.25 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$0.50 and 380cst -$1.00 with MGO contracts Feb +$0.70 and Mar +$0.64. The cargo market is more bearish with 180 cst -$3.02, 380cst -$1.21 and MGO +$0.29.

The Singapore fuel oil markets opened the week lower, loosing $3.0-1.0/mt during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The physical fuel oil cargo remains strong with delivered bunker premiums ranging between +$6.0 and +$8.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

380cst $609
180cst $620
MGO $913

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $566
(1.0 %) : $595
180cst: $596
MGO 0.1%S: $ 885