Thu 30 Aug 2012, 14:14 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices have seen only a slight movement up during morning trade. Still the Brent futures at ICE and NYMEX contracts have remained within their technical range as the ICE Brent's resistance at 113.30 dollars has proved strong for the time being. Economic data from the euro zone, published this morning, have not had any larger impact on oil futures. In the first half of the day, trade has been relatively calm whereas the stronger euro favored the upward movement. Neither the technical constellation, nor the fundamental situation has brought new decisive clues.

Wednesday morning, oil futures have at first retreated. After Tuesday night's bearish API data, market participants have reassessed their formerly bullish expectations regarding the DOE's data closing some of their long positions. The storm Isaac, that has made landfall yesterday morning, had not done any graver damage to the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico by that time and so its bullish impact waned. The Brent's support at 111.55 dollars has remained strong, however, and the WTI was unable to sustainably breach its support at 95.55 dollars and so oil prices have seen a slight correction up. The IEA's statement that it would not support a release of strategic oil reserves additionally buoyed quotations at ICE and NYMEX. Ahead of the DOE's data, oil futures proved increasingly volatile. Investors consolidated their riskier assets waiting for the release of the figures. Given the builds in crude oil and distillate stocks - even though they were not as significant as those the API had released - the DOE's data have been seen as bearish. Especially ICE and product futures have been only slightly impacted by the data. Only the WTI crude showed some more downward potential in late trade.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 978.50 dollars on Wednesday. This was 0.50 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. With some 44,500 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator does not give any signals this morning - neither at ICE nor at NYMEX charts. As long as the indicator's lines don't cross, it remains neutral. Technical analysts thus assess the situation as neutral again recommending investors to remain cautious.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures have hardly changed in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. After yesterday's US oil inventories data showed builds in crude oil stocks, the WTI has traded slightly lower whereas the other options have hardly changed. Meanwhile oil futures have regained some ground. The traded volume is below average. Market participants now eye the performance of stock and forex markets and a string of economic indicators. They will also keep an eye on news regarding the damage done by hurricane Isaac.

API's: Crude oil +5.5; distillates +1.4; gasoline -2.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -1.2%
DOE's; Crude oil +3.8; distillates +0.9; gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization unchanged.
Forecasts: Crude oil -1.1; distillates +0.1; gasoline -0.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-8)

380cst $657
180cst $697
MGO $1045

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-8)

380cst $659
180cst $697
MGO $1050

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is slowing still with WTI -$0.35. Singapore paper is bouncing back up with +$7.50 for 180cst and +$5.50 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$7.50 and 380cst +$6.50 with MGO contracts Sep +$1.33 and Oct +$1.36. The cargo market is bearish still with 180cst -$4.62, 380cst -$6.38 and MGO -$1.01.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were down another -$4.5-6.5 during the Platts window yesterday. Fundamentally, the Singapore market were firmer due to the news of the Venezuelan refinery fire which could tighten incoming supply however, the real impact remains debatable. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $7.0- 8.5 above the cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted gains of app.$1.5/mt in the front and up to $2.5/mt at the backend of the forward curve. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $670
180 cst $685
MGO $980

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA prices eased somewhat, but not much demand survaced. Loading delays are less frequently seen. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries. Antwerp reports some delays still.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 651
(1.0 %) :$ 712
180cst: $ 675
(1.0 %):$ 740
MGO 0.1%S: $978

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