Tue 7 Aug 2012, 13:26 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



In the early afternoon, oil futures have extended their gains as equities regained some ground and the euro renewedly tested its first resistance. The ICE G.Oil and the WTI crude tested more resistance lines at 939.75 dollars and 92.65 dollars.

Oil prices initially traded in a narrow range in London and New York on Monday morning testing first supports at 922.00 dollars (G.Oil) and at 90.70 dollars (WTI). The latter could not be breached sustainably, however. Only the Brent has fallen below its first support but this has not lead to any larger selling orders. In the first half of the day, the euro slightly retreated but it was able to recover in the afternoon providing oil markets with some additional impetus. Given the slightly bullish fundamental and technical constellation, oil futures have then tested their upward potential breaching first resistance lines. During the speech he gave yesterday, Ben Bernanke did not mention monetary policy and so there were no new clues from macro economics. Reports on an attack on the Ceyhan Pipeline running from the Iran to Turkey and the tropical storm Ernesto have been two factors that slightly buoyed oil prices, even though Ernesto has lost some of its intensity on Monday. Rumours regarding the death of Assad have also caused some nervosity among market players. Oil futures finally settled near their intraday highs, while the traded volume has been rather low.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 930.25 dollars on Monday. This was 7.25 dollars above Thursday's settlement. With some 38,300 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic indicator remains bullish this morning whereas the RSI is still above the 70%-line at ICE charts indicating an overbought situation. Technical analysts therefore still assess the situation as slightly bullish. For the Brent and the G.Oil up trends have been created, the WTI still has some leeway up to the high of 93.25 dollar which it reached in July.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures traded sideways in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning seeing some profit taking after yesterday afternoon's price increase. In all, prices consolidated on a high level while the traded volume was rather low. Market participants now eye the performance of equities and forex markets today as well as some economic indicators. Focus will also be on Bernanke's speech and the API's data on US oil inventories, released at 10.p.m.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Wednesday at 16:30(DOE)
Crude oil -0.9; distillates +0.5; gasoline -1.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-8)

380cst $626
180cst $656
MGO $970

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-8)

380cst $629
180cst $663
MGO $975

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bullish still with WTI +$1.34. Singapore paper is mirroring it with +$10.50 for 180cst and +$9.05 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$9.30 and 380cst +$9.30 with MGO contracts Aug +$1.65 and Sep +$1.60. The cargo market is starting to react as well, gaining with 180cst +$8.78, 380cst +$8.95 and MGO +$2.47.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices were slightly up between flat to +$0.75 during the morning Platts window last Friday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a build of +2.20 mbbl to 19.81 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $8.0 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading slightly down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $645
180 cst $660
MGO $930

Fujairah (delivered indications 7-8)

380cst $655
180cst $675
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Last Friday, all prices in the ARA surged on bullish US data, keeping demand at low levels. Continuing loading delays up to three days are reported. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 630
(1.0 %) :$ 680
180cst: $ 662
(1.0 %):$ 724
MGO 0.1%S: $930

MGO  

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