Fri 11 May 2012, 13:30 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices slightly retreated during morning trade but remained within their range. ICE G.Oil has briefly fallen below its first support but was not able to breach it sustainably. The WTI crude's support at 95.70 dollars proved strong, causing a slight upward correction. The situation on the market still has a rather bearish tone, however, as the IEA widely confirmed the EIA's and the OPEC's figures which indicate that the market is oversupplied. As stock and financial markets currently diverge, they do not provide decisive signals. While the DAX marked some losses on weak economic data, the euro slightly advanced. The few US economic data that are due this afternoon are unlikely to provide decisive impulsions. Thus, market players don't expect oil prices to recover sustainably ahead of the weekend.

Along with the euro and some gains at stock exchanges, oil futures edged slightly higher Thursday morning. They soon tested first resistance lines, but only breached them briefly. While the OPEC's monthly report slightly weighed on oil prices, positive US employment data provided some support and prompted investors to buy in the afternoon. The 955.75 dollars bar for the ICE G.Oil June contract remained strong, however. As the ICE G.Oil's front month switched from May to June, the traded volume was above average in London and investors adjusted their riskier assets. During late trade, market players took profit from the higher price level. This profit taking continued until early trade this morning. For the time being, there is still no new trend showing, so market participants keep avoiding larger risk positions.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 950.25 dollars on Thursday. This was -0.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 111,422 contracts the traded volume was on average.

The revision of the EU's oil embargo against the Iran, which was set for May 1st will be postponed to June 1st. Even though Greece which depends on cheap Iranian oil imports, called for a revision, European diplomats do not expect major changes, as the embargo is the EU's only possibility to put some pressure on Tehran regarding its nuclear program.

The stochastic indicator remains neutral for the WTI crude, whereas it is still slightly bullish at ICE. Nevertheless is does not give any new buying signals. Futures at ICE and NYMEX remain clearly oversold. Technical analysts expect prices to continue consolidating on a lower level. Resistances and supports will set the range for this consolidation.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures have edged lower in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The weaker euro and profit taking at Asian stock markets have also impacted on oil futures. The traded volume has been far above average. Market players now look ahead to the performances of stock and forex markets and the IEA's monthly energy report.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-5)

380cst $655
180cst $700
MGO $995

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-5)

380cst $664
180cst $700
MGO $990

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing still with WTI -$0.27 Singapore paper is gaining bearish momentum with -$8.75 for 180cst and -$8.65 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst -$8.75 and 380cst -$8.65 with MGO contracts May -$1.36 and June -$1.34. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst -$2.8, 380cst -$2.26 and MGO +$0.36.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than -$2.0 during Yesterday morning. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a build of +0.6 mbbl to 19.87 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums remains around $7.5 to $8.0 above cargo prices yesterday. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $670
180 cst $680
MGO $940

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-5)

380cst $685
180cst $700
MGO $1040

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets are quiet, despite the bullish inventory data Wednesday. The Eastern arbitrage is at workable levels. The loading and barge congestions are improving.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 635
(1.0 %) :$ 685
180cst: $ 658
(1.0 %):$ 680
MGO 0.1%S: $939

MGO  

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