Wed 21 Dec 2011, 13:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures have edged higher in the morning, with ICE G.Oil breaching its first resistance at 912.00 dollars and the Brent testing its first resistance at 107.75 dollars. Lately there have been several signs of a recovery of the USeconomy. Better conditions for bonds of euro zone countries in the past few days have likewise lifted investors' spirits. The stronger euro has also supported oil futures. New impetus is expected from the DOE's data to be published in the afternoon. Currently oil futures are erasing gains, however, as the dollar sharply advanced.

In a thin trade, oil futures were set for a considerable correction upwards yesterday. The fundamentals as well as the technical constellation were already bullish in the morning encouraging some upward movement. In the course of the day, protests affecting the Kasakh oil industry, a better-than-expected emission of Spanish and Italian bonds as well as convincing economic indicators provided for more impetus. Gaining equities and some profit taking regarding the dollar - respectively a strong euro - were also seen as bullish factors. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX breached several resistances on the day, frequently reinforcing the price rally by technical buying until late in the evening. At night, the API published its forecast of US oil inventories in the past week. As these data showed massive draws in all categories, they were interpreted as bullish. Oil futures thus settled with considerable gains last night.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 902.25 dollars on Tuesday. This was +14.25 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 43,200 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic indicator is clearly bullish, indicating further upward movement. As the RSI for the ICE G.Oil has also risen above the 30% line, technical analysts assess the situation as bullish. After the WTI crude for February delivery has developed a bottom slightly below 93 dollars and given the buying signals provided by the technical indicators, oil prices are likely to remain their strong tendency, analysts say. The first support for the WTI is at 95.75 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 99.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 107.75 dollars, its first support is at 105.35 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures consolidate on a high level in East Asiaand on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The traded volume is slightly below average. Market participants wait for the opening of European markets, for the DOE's oil inventories data to be published at 4.30 p.m.and for today's economic data.

API's: Crude oil -4.6; distillates -2.8; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -2.1%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil -2.8; distillates -0.5; gasoline +0.4 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-12)

380cst $622
180cst $659
MGO $938

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-12)

380cst $624
180cst $661
MGO $942

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is surging, gaining with WTI +$3.34. Singapore paper is bullish as well, gaining with +$11.75 for 180cst and +$11.80 for 380cst for Jan, and for Feb 180 cst +$11.70 and 380cst +$11.60 with MGO Jan contracts at +$2.72 and for Feb +$2.72. The cargo market is fully adopting the bullishness with 180cst +$18.34, 380cst +$19.33 and MGO +$0.79.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rebounded strongly more than +$18.0 during the Platts window yesterday. There were strong buying interests that lifted the fuel oil swap values and narrowed the Asian fuel oil crack sharply. The delivered bunker premiums softened slightly around $22.5 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps were up in a range of $13.00-21.00/mt yesterday with gains on the higher side at the front of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $674
180 cst $687
MGO $930

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

High and low sulfur bunker fuel values in the main Northwest European ports firmed over $10-15/mt day-on-day Tuesday, following stronger sentiment on the 3.5% Fob Rotterdam barges based on surging oil prices and some surfacing demand of shipowners being keen to stem before the Christmas holidays. HSFO supplies for prompt in Rotterdam and Antwerp remained tight with some suppliers fully booked up and during the Christmas holidays.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 625
(1.0 %) :$ 672
180cst: $ 641
(1.0 %):$ 689
MGO 0.1%S: $899

MGO  

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