Wed 12 Oct 2011, 13:02 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After a short dip, oil prices have traded more steadily in the morning, rising sharply around noon, as the already stronger euro was additionally pushed by better-than-expected figures regarding the eurozones industrial production. At ICE, several resistance lines have already been breached. However, investors' interest in the Gasoil contract for October delivery - expiring today at 1 p.m.- is rather scarce, which allows for larger price fluctuations.

Yesterday, Oil prices eased on profit taking in electronic trading hours Tuesday morning when market participants sold off after Monday's rally. The weak euro against dollar also weighed on prices, the gasoil in Londonand the crude oil in New Yorkfell through first support lines. After the opening of NYMEX session the oil complex recovered quickly on a rising euro that was supported by hopes that the Slovakian government would support the euro zone bailout package. When the measure was blocked oil prices lost ground in the wake of the falling euro but as most market participants had already gone home, losses were limited.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 918.00 dollars on Monday. This was 21.75 dollars above Friday's settlement. With some 43,200 contracts the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic indicator is no more bullish this morning and well in the overbought level. The RSI also signals an overbought market at the brent chart and is about to fall through the 70% line which would trigger a selling signal. Technical analysts take a neutral position today and expect oil prices to consolidate on their high level with a possible correction to the downside due to the overbought market situation. The WTI crude is supported at 84.50 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 86.65 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 111.15 dollars, its first support is at 109.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil futures recovered from overnight losses in East Asiaand Globex electronic trade this morning, supported by a stronger euro and rising Asian equities. The traded volume is about on average.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30 (API) and Thursday at 16:30 (DOE) (one day delayed due to National Holiday on Monday)

Crude oil -0.8; distillates -0.8; gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-10)

380cst $638
180cst $684
MGO $928

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-10)

380cst $641
180cst $686
MGO $935

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is back on its bullish track, gaining with WTI +$1.35 Singapore paper is gaining bullish momentum as well with +$18.15 for 180cst and +$17.30 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$17.50 and 380cst +$17.30 with MGO Oct contracts at +$0.89 and for Nov at +$1.20. The cargo market is in line with crude and paper with 180cst +$8.95, 380cst +$9.17 and MGO +$0.17.

The difference between Singapore's ex-wharf bunker price and fuel oil cargo values has reached an eight-month high due to tight avails of cutterstocks in the market. As of Tuesday, the premiums have surged by more than $4.00 pmt to over $20.00 pmt and are expected to remain high until next week. Local bunker players on Wednesday stated that supplies of 380 cSt bunker fuel are at very tight as most fuel oil cargoes for October arrivals have high viscosity and water content. Meanwhile, Singapore's fuel oil stocks dipped to a near eight-month low to 17.020 million barrels in the week ending October 5.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $649
180 cst $659
MDO $915

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Sentiment in the Northwest European bunker market remained mixed Tuesday despite a $1/mt rise in FOBRotterdambarges that tracked firmer front-month Brent crude values. Crude futures moved up about $0.25/b day-on-day Tuesday, following Monday’s strong gains and after European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet called for urgent action on eurozone debts. Suppliers saw variable demand on ongoing product tightness and firmer fuel oil prices. FOBBarges Rotterdam barge values jumped $18/mt on Monday, so there was limited movement on the market. Suppliers in Rotterdamhowever reported good demand due to ongoing high sulfur fuel oil shortages prompted by four VLCCs loading in the port.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 639
(1.0 %) :$ 661
180cst: $ 664
(1.0 %):$ 686
MGO 0.1%S: $ 924

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