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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

Oil futures edged lower during early morning trade. Analysts say, this was due to the disappointing Chinese economic data. In China, the PMI has hit a two years low. According to analysts, the slowing industrial growth might lead to a decrease in Chinese oil demand. China is seen as the country with the second most oil demand in the world.

Yesterday, oil futures started softer in the morning, testing their downward potential. As was expected, Brent's first support at 111 dollars proved strong giving prices some technical support in the afternoon. The strong euro, gaining on the approval of Greece's 28 billion austerity programme, also lifted the complex. Although first resistance lines had been breached at ICE, with investors avoiding to build voluminous positions ahead of the weekend there were no larger buying orders. Thus later in the day oil futures returned from their intra-day highs, settling unchanged for the most part. Only NYMEX Heating Oil and Gasoline for July delivery gained some ground yesterday as brokers liquidated short positions before the contracts' expiry at 8.30 pm.

OPEC: According to Oil Movements OPEC exports by sea will be about -160,000 bpd lower until end of July. Although the average output of Saudi Arabia had increased from 9 to 9.5 million barrels per day in June, it is yet unclear how much demand there would actually be regarding the additional output and how much of it might be used or held back on stock. There are reports that in along with Saudi Arabia also Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have raised their output. Thus, the OPEC's output has recently been quoted to be at 29.45 million barrels per day.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 926.50 dollars on Thursday. This was 3.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 58,500 contracts, the traded volume was about on average.

Although the stochastic indicator remains slightly bullish, it moves toward the overbought area. NYMEX Crude Oil formed a double-top at 95.85 dollars. Therefore analysts see a key resistance in this area close to which there will repeatedly be buying orders. Should this area be transgressed sustainedly, a significant rise is to be expected.With the long weekend ahead in the USA, places will start the day hesitantly. Investors will avoid larger positions and continue consolidating the ones of the day before, as long as there is no new fundamental or technical momentum. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 93.85 dollars, the first resistance at 95.85 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 113.25 dollars, its first support is at 110.70 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil futures trade sideways within their range during electronic morning trading. Market participants are currently consolidating their positions. The volume traded at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Investors are waiting for the opening of the european markets, for further momentum by foreign exchange and U.S. economic indicators in the afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-6)

380 cst $642
180 cst $673
MDO $937

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 30-6)

380 cst $645
180 cst $676
MDO $941

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning bearish, trading sideways with WTI -$0.01. Singapore paper is slowing in its gains as well, gaining still with +$1.45 for 180 cst and +$2.25 for 380 cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$1.90 and 380cst +$1.85 with MGO Jul contracts at +$0.20 and for Aug at +$0.20. The cargo market is bullish still with 180cst +$10.45, 380cst +$10.61 and MGO +$2.34.

The bunker differential in Singapore fuel oil market fell for a second session to $8.00, down $1.35 with bunker fuel reflecting the crude’s strength, up $9.00. Volume was lower but buyer sentiment is stronger than ever despite strong crude. Bunker fuel swaps gained app. $1.00 in front and lost a few cents at the backend of the forward curve in Rotterdam, while Singapore papers lost app. $1.00 along the curve. Both markets are trading down this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $656
180 cst $666
MDO $927

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-6)

380cst: $645
180cst: $671
MGO: $1034

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst :$ 629
(1.0 %) :$ 687
180cst :$ 642
(1.0 %) :$ 702
MGO 0.1%S: $ 923