Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures were at $63.60 per barrel at 05:16 GMT, up $1.07 per barrel, or1.7 percent from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures, were up $1.03 cents, or 1.9 percent, at $54.46 a barrel. The bulls really are getting desperate in this market now, citing the API as a reason for the rise in prices! Ok, yes, the API has predicted a surprise fall in U.S. stock levels, and yes India's imports of crude at 5 million bpd have also helped support prices, but really, a $1 rise this morning? As I pointed out in an earlier morning report, as there is not much new definitive market news, the slightest changes are having inflated effects. Things like the API predictions, IEA growth stats, bank forecast updates, the Saudi oil minister being five minutes late to a meeting are poured over by the market to find meaning where perhaps there is not any. It reminds you of that English teacher you used to have who tried to convince you of all the clever synthesis of ideas in a piece of writing. "You have to ask yourself why they are writing this, why they created these characters, or why they are using that specific word at that specific time. It could be a way of representing this, or showing how this mirrors with the title and is in fact an ironic parody of our society" ... Ermm, maybe they just felt like it? EIA data at 3.30pm UK time so I hope you are waiting with bated breath for how the market will overreact to that news. All fun and games.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 20)

The front crack opened at -4.40, strengthening to -4.15, before weakening to -4.55, closing -4.45.The Cal 19 was valued at -11.05.

The front-month Singapore 180 cSt fuel oil refining margin hit a record high on Tuesday for the second time this month, boosted by tightening global supply and falling crude oil prices.

Lower fuel oil output from refiners in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and northwest Europe, limited Iranian fuel oil exports due to U.S. sanctions on the nation and steep declines in crude prices have bolstered fuel oil markets.

While refinery upgrades and disruptions have crimped global fuel oil supply this year, firm demand could keep margins high in the near-term. However, as the profits from producing fuel oil remain at elevated levels, refiners may soon begin to boost supply by increasing output of residual fuels.

Economic Events:

* 12am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 16

* 1:30pm: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Oct.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 17

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, Nov. 10

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 18

* 3pm: U.S. Existing Home Sales, Oct.

* 3pm: University of Michigan Sentiment, Nov. (final)

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report; TopLive blog starts 3:20pm

* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count (changed from Friday due to U.S. holiday)

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 413.50 / 415.50

Jan19 - 402.50 / 404.50

Feb19 - 393.50 / 395.50

Mar19 - 387.00 / 389.00

Apr19 - 381.25 / 383.25

May19 - 375.25 / 377.25

Q1-19 - 394.50 / 396.50

Q2-19 - 375.75 / 377.75

Q3-19 - 355.00 / 357.50

Q4-19 - 324.25 / 326.75

CAL19 - 363.00 / 366.00

CAL20 - 298.50 / 304.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 418.25 / 420.25

Jan19 - 407.25 / 409.25

Feb19 - 399.25 / 401.25

Mar19 - 394.75 / 396.75

Apr19 - 390.25 / 392.25

May19 - 384.75 / 386.75

Q1-19 - 400.50 / 402.50

Q2-19 - 385.25 / 387.25

Q3-19 - 366.50 / 369.00

Q4-19 - 340.75 / 343.25

CAL19 - 374.00 / 377.00

CAL20 - 319.50 / 325.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Jan19 - 365.50 / 367.50

Feb19 - 360.50 / 362.50

Mar19 - 355.50 / 357.50

Apr19 - 350.75 / 352.75

May19 - 346.00 / 348.00

Q1-19 - 360.50 / 362.50

Q2-19 - 346.00 / 348.00

Q3-19 - 326.00 / 328.50

Q4-19 - 292.75 / 295.25

CAL19 - 333.50 / 336.50

CAL20 - 277.75 / 283.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 596.14 / 598.14

Jan19 - 588.38 / 590.38

Feb19 - 587.18 / 589.18

Mar19 - 586.33 / 588.33

Apr19 - 585.64 / 587.64

May19 - 586.27 / 588.27

Q1-19 - 587.29 / 589.29

Q2-19 - 586.41 / 588.41

Q3-19 - 592.78 / 595.28

Q4-19 - 597.97 / 600.97

CAL19 - 590.36 / 594.36

CAL20 - 597.11 / 603.11

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 78.83 / 79.03

Jan19 - 79.08 / 79.28

Feb19 - 79.23 / 79.43

Mar19 - 79.23 / 79.43

Apr19 - 79.20 / 79.40

May19 - 79.16 / 79.36

Q1-19 - 79.08 / 79.48

Q2-19 - 79.03 / 79.43

Q3-19 - 79.60 / 79.90

Q4-19 - 80.16 / 80.56

CAL19 - 79.35 / 79.95

CAL20 - 80.05 / 80.65