Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $66.43 a barrel at 06:08 GMT, down 36 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close; and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $56.97 per barrel, 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, below their last settlement. Not too much has changed really. All we are getting is more details on the issues that have been highlighted previously. Apparently, portfolio managers have sold the equivalent of 553 million barrels of crude and fuels in the last seven weeks - the largest reduction over a comparable period since at least 2013. You really can't have a market rally without the support of the financials, but at the moment it seems that they are reticent to join back in on this market. With that in mind, there could be an overreaction on whatever comes next. By this, I mean, if OPEC agrees a significant cut with the support of Russia, the market could suddenly all buy back in a catapult way over where the market should be. But if no agreement is reached and OPEC kicks the can down the road to their next meeting, whoomph, down we go towards $60 and then all the bottom feeders will come out of the dark corners of the market. Little gremlin-like beings who will start buying a little here and a little there, oops, missed the drop, and we are already halfway back up towards $70. Technically talking, we really have come down to a level which is looking oversold, so it seems that we will see some people getting in at this level and any further movement downwards stopped by stiff market support.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 19)

The front crack opened at -5.50, strengthening to -4.65, before weakening to -4.80, closing -4.75. The Cal 19 was valued at -11.50.

The fuel oil market began the week on a stronger note as a tighter supply outlook for December helped boost sentiment, trade sources said.

The December 380 cSt barge fuel oil crack to Brent crude was trading at about minus $5.30 a barrel on Monday, compared with a discount of $5.50 a barrel in the previous session, broker sources said.

The front-month crack discount was last narrower on Wednesday when it reached a 14-month high of minus $5.25 a barrel, according to Refinitiv data in Eikon.

Similarly, the December East-West 380 cSt fuel oil arbitrage spread climbed to about $40.75 from $39.50, they said. According to Refinitiv data in Eikon, the front-month arbitrage spread was last higher on Nov. 8 when it climbed to $40 per tonne, its highest since records began in late 2015.

Economic Events:

* 1:30pm: U.S. Housing Starts, Oct.

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Australia weather bureau issues El Nino outlook

* Equinor's Autumn Conference in Oslo, with speakers including CEO Eldar Saetre, Norwegian Petroleum and Energy Minister Kjell-Borge Freiberg and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 436.25 / 438.25

Jan19 - 424.50 / 426.50

Feb19 - 415.25 / 417.25

Mar19 - 408.75 / 410.75

Apr19 - 403.00 / 405.00

May19 - 397.25 / 399.25

Q1-19 - 416.25 / 418.25

Q2-19 - 397.50 / 399.50

Q3-19 - 377.00 / 379.50

Q4-19 - 345.25 / 347.75

CAL19 - 381.25 / 384.25

CAL20 - 316.75 / 322.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 441.00 / 443.00

Jan19 - 429.75 / 431.75

Feb19 - 421.75 / 423.75

Mar19 - 416.25 / 418.25

Apr19 - 412.00 / 414.00

May19 - 406.75 / 408.75

Q1-19 - 422.75 / 424.75

Q2-19 - 407.00 / 409.00

Q3-19 - 388.75 / 391.25

Q4-19 - 361.25 / 363.75

CAL19 - 392.25 / 395.25

CAL20 - 337.75 / 343.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 394.25 / 396.25

Jan19 - 387.25 / 389.25

Feb19 - 382.25 / 384.25

Mar19 - 377.50 / 379.50

Apr19 - 372.75 / 374.75

May19 - 368.00 / 370.00

Q1-19 - 382.25 / 384.25

Q2-19 - 367.75 / 369.75

Q3-19 - 347.50 / 350.00

Q4-19 - 313.50 / 316.00

CAL19 - 351.50 / 354.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 299.00

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 619.86 / 621.86

Jan19 - 612.30 / 614.30

Feb19 - 610.28 / 612.28

Mar19 - 608.75 / 610.75

Apr19 - 607.96 / 609.96

May19 - 607.92 / 609.92

Q1-19 - 610.36 / 612.36

Q2-19 - 608.18 / 610.18

Q3-19 - 613.01 / 615.51

Q4-19 - 618.77 / 621.77

CAL19 - 611.77 / 615.77

CAL20 - 612.74 / 618.74

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 82.22 / 82.42

Jan19 - 82.30 / 82.50

Feb19 - 82.33 / 82.53

Mar19 - 82.33 / 82.53

Apr19 - 82.28 / 82.48

May19 - 82.23 / 82.43

Q1-19 - 82.22 / 82.62

Q2-19 - 82.17 / 82.57

Q3-19 - 82.60 / 82.90

Q4-19 - 83.08 / 83.48

CAL19 - 82.40 / 83.00

CAL20 - 82.77 / 83.37