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Oil prices hit their lowest in more than three weeks this morning, the sixth straight day of losses and longest bearish run since early 2016, as U.S. crude stocks fell less than expected and concerns over Britain's future in the EU weighed.

Market fundamentals and the technical constellation were bearish Wednesday morning, favouring tests of the downside at ICE and NYMEX. The insecurities regarding a possible Brexit particularly weighed on oil futures as investors fear that it might hamper economic growth, denting oil demand. Ahead of the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories the bearish aspects predominated but losses remained limited. The figures of the DOE triggered a brief price rally at 4.30 p.m. Oil futures approached Tuesday's highs before the bearish factors regained the upper hand. Wednesday evening WTI dropped to the lower Bollinger Band near 47.35 USD, a price target which we had forecast Wednesday morning.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 441.00 USD on Wednesday, this was 2.50 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 85,800 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The Stochastic indicator and the RSI still don't give off any technical signals. However, the 7- and the 21-period moving averages might give off fresh cues if they sustainably cross. When WTI hit the lower Bollinger Band, it reached the price target we had forecast Wednesday morning. Since fresh cues are lacking, selling pressure is currently easing. The coming days will show whether the downward correction will turn into a downtrend. For such a trend to develop, oil futures would have to remain below the 7-period moving average. This mark is near 49.15 USD at the WTI chart today. We are thus currently assessing the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex above Average: After Wednesday evening's price slump, oil futures are still tending to the downside in ectronic trading this morning. They are trading in a narrow range near Wednesday's lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for today's economic indicators. They are also keeping an eye on Nigeria.

Forecast: Crude oil -2.1; Distillates ±0.0; Gasoline -0.2 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil -0.9; Distillates +0.8; Gasoline -2.6 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +1.2; Distillates +3.7; Gasoline +2.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-6)
380cst $236
180cst $333
MGO $472

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-6)
380cst $242
180cst $286
MGO $455

Singapore (delivered indications 13-6)

380cst $241
180cst $246
MGO $441

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-6)

380cst $245
180cst $250
MGO $489

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $233
MGO 0.1%S: $442