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Many analysts still see Brent well-supported by higher risk premiums and lower crude production in the North Sea. According to Danske Bank, Brent will also continue to trade at a high level although a price of 125 USD per barrel should be the limit in order to not harm the global economy. But in the short-term, the bank also sees downward potential since the speculation premium for oil has considerably increased again. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX traded sideways in a narrow range within their resistances and supports Monday morning, displaying little momentum in a thin market due to President’s Day in the USA. The euro/dollar parity also hardly showed any fluctuations. Although the better-than-expected trade balance out of the euro zone gave a slight boost to the common currency, it hardly made an impact at the oil market. As NYMEX floor trade was closed due to the holiday in the USA, the market also lacked fresh signals in the afternoon. After technical selling signals were triggered at ICE, oil prices, both in London and New York, breached their first supports, triggering more technical selling. However, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX could compensate some of their losses in late trading. While Brent was not able to fully recover, WTI closed near its opening price. After one week of New Year’s celebrations in China, the Asian markets are open again. Thus, traders increasingly focus on Asia today, also because International Petroleum Week taking place in London will keep trades from their desks until tomorrow. The data on U.S. oil inventories will be released a day later than usual due to the holiday in the USA on Monday.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 1,007.25 dollars on Monday. This was 4.75 dollars above Friday's settlement. With some 25,300 deals the traded volume was far below average.

OPEC: The exports of the oil producing countries in the Arab Gulf significantly dropped in January. Saudi Arabia, Kuweit and the United Arab Emirates have cut their exports by a total of 600,000 bpd, after exports had already decreased by 350,000 bpd in December. With its exports declining by 500,000 bpd in January and by 200,000 bpd in December, Saudi Arabia was the country with the highest share in the total decline. According to analysts, this shows that the OPEC has cut its production to tackle the oversupply on the global market. The OPEC's January output is already expected to be below 30.0 mbpd.

At the G.Oil chart, the RSI has crossed the 70%-line top-down, giving off a selling signal to the market, while the Stochastic is still neutral as its two lines have not crossed yet. The RSI at the Brent chart is already touching the 70%-line and could generate a clear selling signal if this line was breached and the Stochastic’ lines at the G.Oil chart also crossed. The selling signal for WTI already dates a few days back and the RSI is still in the neutral zone. Thus, analysts see WTI’s downward potential limited at around 95.00 USD.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: Oil prices are trading mixed this morning. While WTI is showing a stronger tendency after yesterday’s price drop, resulting from technical sellings, ICE futures are softer in early trading. There are hardly any signals from forex trading to give direction at the moment. After the holiday in the USA yesterday, the trade volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Investors are now waiting for fresh signals from forex trading and from some economic data of which the U.S. housing market index may be of most importance.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-02)
380cst $653
180cst $716
MGO $1055

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-02)
380cst $656
180cst $721
MGO $1060

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is losing still with -$0.23. Paper for Mar is more bearish, losing with 180cst -$5.00 and for 380cst -$6.10, and Apr contracts with 180cst -$5.00, 380st -$6.05. The cargo market in line with crude and paper with 180cst -$3.16, 380cst -$1.44 and MGO -$0.19.

The Singapore fuel oil market started the week easing by -$3.0 to -$1.5 during the Platts window yesterday. The bunker demand was said to be slow. The delivered bunker premiums were around $3.0 to $5.0 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading slightly up.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $652
180 cst $656
MDO $995

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

We have seen a fair amount of demand in the market with about 11kT in Antwerp alone causing congestion ahead of the weekend There are still higher premiums added in Rotterdam due to operational delays and limited barge accessibility creating problems for prompt in Rotterdam. Barges in particular were queuing for two-three days to be loaded.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 638
(1.0 %) :$ 686
180cst: $ 662
(1.0 %):$ 718
MGO 0.1%S: $ 994