Wed 23 May 2012, 12:44 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude futures continue to weaken this morning, reacting to a surging dollar. Worries on Greece trigger a swap of Euros for US Dollars.

Given the slightly bullish technical constellation, oil prices edged higher in London and New York Tuesday morning, testing their resistances at 109.40 dollars for the Brent and at 93.25 dollars for the WTI. These resistance lines proved strong, however, limiting the upward potential. While gains at stock markets continued to support oil futures, the OECD's warning of a recession in the euro zone and the downgrade of Japan's credit rank prompted investors to take some profits from the euro. The weak common currency kept oil futures from breaching their resistances at ICE and NYMEX and thus quotations edged lower in the course of the evening. US economic data came out mixed, only temporarily providing support, whereas the positive turn of the IAEA's negotiations with the Iran had a bearish effect during late trade.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 917.75 dollars on Tuesday. This was 6.25 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 63,700 contracts the traded volume was little above average.

OPEC: Saudi Arabia raised crude production by 0.7% to a near 31-year high at 9.92mbpd in March to become the world’s largest producer for the first time in 6-years, exports rose 3% in response to the cut in Iranian shipments. In April, China imported some 23.7% less of crude oil from Iran compared to the previous year. The country mainly substitutes the Iranian oil with imports from Saudi-Arabia. Saudi deliveries accordingly increased, making China's imports from the kingdom rise 14% compared to the previous year in April. China's total oil demand increased by +3.3% on year in the reported month.

The stochastic indicator is still slightly bullish at ICE. At the WTI charts its lines have already crossed, however, so the indicator turned slightly bearish there. The RSI did not breach the 30%-line and so there was no buying signal. The Brent, the G.Oil and the WTI stuck to their mid-term down trends, consolidating on a low level. Technical factors are likely to remain in the background today, as main impulsions are to be provided by the fundamental side. Ahead of the DOE's oil inventories data and the negotiations with the Iran, investors are likely to avoid larger risk positions.

U.S.

Nymex access easing: Oil futures traded lower in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. Markets are rather nervous this morning, whereas losses at Asian stock exchanges and the dollar, having gained strength yesterday, weigh on market sentiment. The traded volume is on average. Investors eye stock and forex markets, the DOE's data which are to be published in the afternoon and today's economic indicators.

API's: Crude oil +1.5; distillates -0.2; gasoline -4.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.1%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil +0.8; distillates +0.1; gasoline +0.1 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-5)

380cst $633
180cst $667
MGO $965

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-5)

380cst $640
180cst $675
MGO $958

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended its second day gain more than $3.5 during the morning yesterday, tracking the firm crude movement. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $5.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained more than $9/mt at the front of the forward curve. Backend again was weaker, with calendar 2013 papers assessed app.$5.5/mt up versus previous day close. This morning markets are trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $645
180 cst $655
MGO $900

Fujairah (delivered indications 23-5)

380cst $670
180cst $690
MGO $1040

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The NWE bunker demand bounced up, after the bank holidays, tracking positive sentiment from equity markets in Europe. Local avails in Rotterdam on hsfo and lsfo are very tight, with no improvement expected before the and of this week.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 620
(1.0 %) :$ 666
180cst: $ 642
(1.0 %):$ 685
MGO 0.1%S: $902

BP   MGO  

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