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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

Oil prices edged lower during morning trade, with ICE G.Oil and NYMEX C.Oil falling through first supports. As in the previous days, the main impetus was mainly provided by a retreating dollar and the further decline of European markets. Currently oil futures retrieve from their intraday lows. This has been supported by the still solid support at 105.00 dollars for the Brent. Without any important economic data scheduled, there is no new fundamental momentum today. However, technical analysts are expecting a renewed test of supports.

Yesterday, oil prices dropped, breaching first support lines already in the morning, weighed down by a rather bearish technical constellation and market participants liquidating long positions after Wednesday's DOE data. An unexpected fall in existing U.S. home sales in July and a greater-than-expected rise in new claims for jobless benefits in the latest week added to the growing fears that the U.S. economy could slide into recession and as a consequence investors continued to flee oil futures in favour of safer havens amid the turmoil. The selling pressure heightened after data showed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region in August fell to the lowest level since March 2009. The data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank is viewed as a forward-looking indicator of national manufacturing. Brent’s premium has widened amid supply disruptions in the North Sea , Nigeria and Libya , in contrast to increasing stockpiles in the U.S.

ICE gasoil for September delivery settled at 911.50 dollars on Thursday. This was 25.00 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 67.800 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator gave a clear selling signal Thursday and is still seen bearish today. As the downward potential is not yet exploited, technical analysts reckon that the WTI will fall below 80.00 dollars for a barrel in the short term. As for today, markets are seen little volatile ahead of the weekend and the WTI crude's expiry on Monday. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 80.35 dollars, its first resistance at 86.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 109.75 dollars, its first support is at 105.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing: Oil futures are trading in a narrow lateral margin in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning, pausing after Thursday's hefty losses, while market participants are still taking some profit. The traded volume is well above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-8)

380 cst $626
180 cst $662
MDO $938

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 16-8)

380 cst $628
180 cst $664
MDO $941

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$4.31. Singapore paper is fully adopting the bearishness with -$23.55 for 180cst and -$23.00 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst -$23.50 and -$23.05 for 180cst with MGO Sept contracts at -$3.92 and for Oct at -$3.93. The cargo market is slowing now with 180cst +$0.76, 380cst +$0.38 and MGO -$0.37.

The Singapore heavy build slightly +0.27 mbbl to 19.86 mbbl. The delivered premiums were app. $10.0 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps yesterday lost in a range of $18.25- 20.50 along the curve. Losses were app. $1.00 higher in Rotterdam papers. This morning both markets continue to trade lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $635
180 cst $643
MDO $891

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-8)

380 cst $650
180 cst $673
MDO $1067

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 605
(1.0 %) :$ 636
180cst: $ 638
(1.0 %):$ 665
MGO 0.1%S: $ 910