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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

U.S. crude oil prices rose more than $2 this morning as the dollar index slumped amid expectations that the Fed will commit to a new round of monetary stimulus this week and oil also received a boost from data showing strong manufacturing growth in China.

US economic data barely had any effect on prices Friday. Oil futures were trading within a narrow range for most of the day, than dropping due to technical reasons in the evening. After first support lines were breached, stop loss selling orders triggered a quick drop till second support marks were reached. In late trading hours a weaker dollar lifted prices above 81 dollars again.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 0.00 to 1.00 dollars up at about 701.25 dollars/ton after settling at 700.75 dollars (official settlement price) Friday night. This was -7.25 dollars vs Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 33,200 deals below average.

Oil prices are still withing the technical trading range and are expected to consolidate some more today as the resistance line at 82.25 dollars is still seen very strong. Even though most of Fridays selling signal got digested by prices falling in late trading hours Friday evening, stochastic indicator is still a little bearish today. U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil prices barely changed in early trading hours this morning. NYMEX crude oil is just below 82 dollars and a continued weak dollar over the weekend supports prices so far. No further news in the markets. Traded volume is above average.

U.S

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-10)

380cst: $463
180cst: $482
MGO: $745

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-10)

380cst: $465
180cst: $485
MGO: $749

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is bouncing up slightly with WTI +$0.32. Singapore paper is not yet reacting with 180cst -$0.50 and 380cst -$0.70 for Nov, and Dec 180 cst -$0.50 and 380cst -$0.45 with MGO Nov contracts +$0.07 and for Dec at +$0.05. The cargo market is reflecting last week's sentiment with 180cst -$2.13, 380cst -$2.63 and MGO -$0.56.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell by more than -$2.0/mt during the Platts window. The delivered bunker premiums were more than $2.5 above cargo prices last Friday. The bunker premiums have strengthened on short term terminal congestion.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $470
180cst: $480
MGO: $693

Fujairah (delivered indications 1/11)

380cst: $474
180cst: $495
MGO: $735

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 166KT between 447-449 with again Litasco as the most dominant seller to Petroned as the main buyer.

The Northwest European market continued to be weighed down by healthy availability. Bunker demand and interest in a cash-and carry move, however, were keeping fundamentals supported as well, resulting in largely stable dynamics. The hi-lo differential was seen at $16.75/mt Thursday, $1/mt higher since Wednesday, Platts data showed. NWE high sulfur fuel oil barges strengthened Thursday, reacting to Singapore’s bullish run rather than Rotterdam demand, which remained weak. Platts assessed FOB NWE barges up $7.75/mt at $453.00/mt, supported largely by crude’s similar rise. Borderline arbitrage economics to Singapore heated up efforts of securing a VLCC for early-mid November. Yet there remained little motivation in loading barrels in a vessel for arrival December, the month when companies would try to lower inventories. As such, relative Rotterdam barge strength weakened, as the fuel oil crack slipped back into $12/barrel range, at $12.43/b.

380cst: $455
(1.0%): $478
180cst: $471
(1.0%): $493
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $715