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Technical indicators: neutral

Oil prices slumped during the session in New York after U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly worsened to its weakest since August 2009 and the dollar rose as investors returned to the safe-haven currency for shelter. The medium-term uptrend was breached Friday, when WTI crude fell through the 74.00 dollar support line which marked the lower limit of the uptrend channel. The short-term downtrend has strengthened, but RSI and Stochastic indicators are not giving any bearish signals any more, an indication that the downtrend has slowed.

First WTI crude support line seen at 72.75 dollars today, first resistance line at 74.40 dollars (the upper limit of the downtrend channel). Only if the resistance is breached today, will oil prices keep rising. Oil futures are edging sideways, despite most European equities opening higher and the euro firming against the dollar. Front-month Brent and WTI contracts closed down for the fourth day running Friday after disappointing US consumer confidence numbers.

Friday's hefty losses will bring about a technical upward correction today, but traders are not expected to take long-range decisions ahead of the Federal Reserve Bank's policy meeting Tuesday. If the FED lowers its forecasts for economic growth in the USA, as some people are expecting, oil prices would be pushed down because it implies lower demand.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 7,50 to 9,00 dollars higher at about 671,75 dollars/ton after settling at 663,50 dollars (official settlement price) Friday night. This was 9,25 dollars below Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 84.700 deals well above average.

NYMEX crude for October delivery expires tomorrow and liquidity is shifting to the November contract. The spread between both contracts has widened to 1.40 dollars, a result of the crude oversupply in the USA.

U.S.

Nymex Access trade: Oil prices are rising in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, extending Friday's late recovery as the dollar loses ground in Asian trading. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

USA: The University of Michigan's index for consumer confidence declined to 66.6 in September after 68.9 in the previous month. The seasonally-adjusted consumer price index for August rose by 0.3% from July. Consumer prices also rose by 0.3% in July, after falling by 0.1% in June.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-9)

380cst: $435
180cst: $455
MGO: $715

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-9)

380cst: $438
180cst: $458
MGO: $718

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is bearish with WTI -$1.28. Singapore paper is mirroring the drop with 180cst -$4.95 and 380cst -$4.80 for Oct, and Nov 180 cst -$3.55 and 380cst -$4.55 with MGO Oct contracts -$0.55 and for Nov at -$0.57. The cargo market is only just starting to change direction with 180cst +$1.25, 380cst +$1.82 and MGO +$0.02.

The Singapore fuel oil price extended its strength for the fourth session by more than $1.0 during the Platts window last Friday. There was buying interest, narrowing the Asian fuel oil crack spread. The delivered bunker premiums were under pressure, ranging from flat to $0.50 above the cargo as bunker demand was soft.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $443
180cst: $450
MGO: $662

Fujairah (delivered indications 20/9)

380cst: $440
180cst: $470
MGO: $725

Rotterdam

Friday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 68KT was traded in the MOC between 425.50-427 with Litasco as the main seller to Cargill as the main buyers.

With the Singapore market well supplied and the arbitrage is now closed. However, NWE demand is weakening and therefore despite the reported 5 VLCC fixtures prices are steady. Litasco, RWE, Vitol and BP all fixed VLCCs and Total a Suezmax all for the Singapore arb. Gunvor also has a vessel loading in Tallinn heading direct. The US influx dried up, and local suppliers are reluctant to meet short demand, to fully profit from the anticipated contango.

380cst: $434
(1.0%): $458
180cst: $450
(1.0%): $480
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $670