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Commentary

Despite bullish EIA data and news that Saudi Arabia took the extraordinary measure of suspending oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after two tankers came under attack by Yemeni Houthi militia members, the market doesn't seem to want to hit the heights of the high 70's just yet! And it's not totally put off by the constant rumblings of oversupply either, and we seem to be finding support in the low 70's!

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 25)

The front crack opened at -7.80, weakening to -7.95, before strengthening to -7.80. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00.

Asia's fuel oil market eased but fundamentals remain supportive over the near term as tight supplies continue to cope with firm demand for the fuel.

The front-month time spread for 380 cSt fuel oil eased for a second session straight to $8 a tonne on Wednesday, down 50 cents a tonne from the previous session. On Friday, the time spread was at a more than three-year high of $9 a tonne.

Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent for August also slipped to minus $3.16 a barrel, down from $3.11 a barrel in the previous session and a near one-year high of minus $2.72 a barrel on Monday.

Western fuel oil flows into East Asia for August are expected to close at lower levels for a third consecutive month and near July's two-year low of about 2.5 million tonnes.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm:

** U.S. Durables Goods Orders, June (prelim)

** U.S. Retail Inventories, June

** U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance, June

** U.S. Wholesale Inventories, June (prelim)

** U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, July 21

** U.S. Continuing Claims, July 14

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 22

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

* Today:

** Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

** Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

** Angola final program for September

** Shell, Repsol, Total earnings

Crack -7.80

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 447.25 / 449.25

Sep18 - 439.50 / 441.50

Oct18 - 435.00 / 437.00

Nov18 - 431.75 / 433.75

Dec18 - 428.75 / 430.75

Jan19 - 425.75 / 427.75

Q4-18 - 431.75 / 433.75

Q1-19 - 422.50 / 424.50

Q2-19 - 413.00 / 415.50

Q3-19 - 392.00 / 394.50

CAL19 - 394.00 / 397.00

CAL20 - 323.00 / 329.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 425.50 / 427.50

Sep18 - 420.00 / 422.00

Oct18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Nov18 - 412.00 / 414.00

Dec18 - 408.50 / 410.50

Jan19 - 406.50 / 408.50

Q4-18 - 412.00 / 414.00

Q1-19 - 403.25 / 405.25

Q2-19 - 393.50 / 396.00

Q3-19 - 368.50 / 371.00

CAL19 - 371.50 / 374.50

CAL20 - 307.25 / 313.25