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Commentary

Brent closed down $0.90 last night to $63.83 and WTI closed at $60.99, down $0.65. What has the week brought us? Well, The Beast from the East seems to have struck the Brent market hard as well, as crude is down 4%. Since 26th Jan, Brent is down 10%. News that OPEC bought the US shale oil top dogs a slap up meal at Taco Bell last night seems to be the first signal that OPEC are actually acknowledging that the US shale revolution is indeed scuppering their plans to stabilise the market before increasing their own production again. The last time Brent was at $60 the OPEC cuts were the same as they are now in term of volumes, but US production was around 9.5mn bpd. In Feb 2018. it will be around 10.2mn bpd. I agree that on face value the situation does look as though OPEC is either going to have to concede working with the U.S. as a major oil market player, or accept that their attempts to unwind their cuts will have a dramatic effect on prices. There may be some saving graces in the form of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil, tensions rising again in the Korean peninsula/South China Sea, or victimisation of an OPEC member like they have done to Qatar.

Fuel Oil Market (March 1)

The front crack opened at -11.80, strengthening to -10.45, before weakening to -11.55, closing -10.25. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00.

Asia's front-month viscosity spread held steady for a third day running on Thursday, with several bids and offers for 380-cst fuel oil in the Singapore cash market, though only one deal was sealed.

The front-month viscosity spread, the price differential between 180 cSt and 380 cSt fuel oil, stayed at $7.50 a tonne but was slightly lower than the eight-month high of $7.75 a tonne on Monday.

Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventories were up 5 percent, or 1.1 million barrels, to reach a two-week high of 22.53 million barrels in the week to Feb. 28.

Economic Data and Events

* 3pm: University of Michigan Sentiment, Feb. (final)

* 6pm Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs, period Mar 2, prior 799

* ~6pm ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Apr18 - 350.75 / 352.75

May18 - 350.25 / 352.25

Jun18 - 349.50 / 351.50

Jul18 - 348.50 / 350.50

Aug18 - 347.00 / 349.00

Sep 18 - 345.75 / 347.75

Q2-18 - 350.00 / 352.00

Q3-18 -347.00 / 349.00

Q4-18 - 341.50 / 344.00

Q1-19 - 334.00 / 336.50

CAL19 - 302.00 / 306.00

CAL20 - 224.25 / 232.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Apr18 - 358.00 / 360.00

May18 - 357.50 / 359.50

Jun18 - 356.75 / 358.75

Jul18 - 356.00 / 358.00

Aug18 - 354.50 / 356.50

Sep 18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Q2-18 - 357.25 / 359.25

Q3-18 - 354.50 / 356.50

Q4-18 - 349.00 / 351.50

Q1-19 - 341.75 / 344.25

CAL19 - 311.25 / 315.25

CAL20 - 247.25 / 255.25

Rotterdam Barges

Apr18 338.25 / 340.25

May18 337.50 / 339.50

Jun18 336.75 / 338.75

Jul18 335.25 / 337.25

Aug18 333.25 / 335.25

Sep 18 - 330.75 / 332.75

Q2-18 337.50 / 339.50

Q3-18 333.00 / 335.00

Q4-18 324.00 / 326.50

Q1-19 316.75 / 319.25

CAL19 280.25 / 284.25

CAL20 220.25 / 228.25