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Trading at ICE and NYMEX was rather subdued on Thursday morning. Market fundamentals remained bearish but technical selling pressure had ebbed. The Stochastic indicator even gave buying signals. However, as we expected in our technical analysis on Thursday, these buying signals didn't have any lasting impact on oil futures at first. WTI took the lead when oil prices edged lower. The steadier dollar favoured a decline. Gasoil had already breached its first support in the morning but the contract only approached its next support at 463.75 USD in the early evening. In the course of the day, oil futures were also weighed down by a market outlook provided by Goldman Sachs. The bank left its short-term (October) price forecast for WTI unchanged at 45 USD as the surplus of oil has increased to 2.0 mbpd compared to 1.8 mbpd in the first half of 2015. News on a supertanker loaded with North Sea crude oil having interrupted its passage to South Korea put prices under pressure as well. Market players presume that demand for this oil failed to materialize whilst the planned production of North Sea crude oil is to peak in September. After the Gasoil settlement and when the contract bounced from its support at 463.75 USD, oil futures saw an upward correction. Whilst Brent pared earlier losses, Gasoil even posted some gains as investors had covered their short positions.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 464.50 USD on Thursday, this is -8.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 54.500 deals the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The buying signals the Stochastic indicator gave at the Brent and the Gasoil chart persist although the indicator hasn't confirmed the signals at the WTI charts yet. However, the RSI has exceeded 30% at the WTI and the Gasoil chart, generating a buying signal. The technical constellation can thus be interpreted as slightly bullish this morning, favouring short-covering ahead of the weekend. Still, the Stochastic indicator has to confirm the buying signals at the WTI chart and the RSI has to generate a buying signal at the Brent chart until the constellation can be considered clearly bullish. Meanwhile, the downtrends remain intact, limiting the upward potential at the ICE near the MA7.

U.S.

Nymex on average: Oil futures kept track of their rise in Asia and in electronic trading this morning as investors were still covering their short positions. Further short covering ahead of the weekend and the slightly bullish technical constellation are buoying oil markets. However, this has not lead to considerable gains yet. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average at this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as on the economic indicators that are on the agenda today (see economic calendar). Market players will focus on the data on the US labour market. This evening, Baker Hughes will also release its rig count again.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-8)
380cst $255
180cst $410
MGO $502

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-8)
380cst $266
180cst $304
MGO $491

Singapore (delivered indications 6-8)

380cst $263
180cst $282
MGO $443

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-8)

380cst $275
180cst $319
MGO $659

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $263
MGO 0.1%S: $445