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Fuel oil trend

Rotterdam: $ 1 higher.
Singapore: $ 3 lower.
US Gulf: $ 1 higher.

Increased tensions in the Ukraine (Brent: $108.1)

The geopolitical tensions in Ukraine look longer-term with this weekend's unofficial referendum in Eastern Ukraine. In general, the result of the referendum is not accepted by the Ukrainian government or any western country. The EU is preparing an extension of the sanctions in order to increase the pressure on Russia to help ease the tensions. Oil prices are not notably affected by this so far; one reason could be that Saudi Arabia has stated that it will increase its oil supply should the conflict result in supply disruptions.

Clashes between Sudan and South Sudan have intensified; even after a recent ceasefire was agreed. Since 2009, oil production in the two countries has almost halved from close to 500,000 bpd to approx. 250,000 bpd.

On the oil demand side, economic numbers from Japan – one of the world's largest economies - came out this morning weaker than expected. Other than this, today's economic calendar is light.

Later this week, we will see a number of inflation releases from around the globe (Thursday). This could give some volatility in the markets.