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Oil prices are once again edging higher on US retail sales data which was published yesterday afternoon and was much stronger than expected. Retail sales surged 0.80 per cent in July compared to expectations of 0.20 per cent growth. Prices are also finding support from the API stock report. This morning, prices have breached their first resistance lines and are already testing the next ones.

Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX have already gained ground Tuesday morning continuing their steady tendency. Positive data regarding Germany's and France's GDP and the then advancing euro have given oil futures the momentum they needed to breach their first short-term supports. The ZEW's disappointing indeces of economic sentiment in the euro zone and Germany have slightly weighed on prices around noon but in the USA data on retail sales and business stocks have come out better than expected and so oil futures have been able to keep their high level despite of the profit taking regarding the euro. Resistance lines at 114.30 dollars (Brent) and at 962.00 dollars (G.Oil) have proved strong in the course of the day and the WTI's resistance at 94.00 dollars limited the upward potential. The data on US oil inventories published by the API last night have been seen as slightly bearish but have not had any direct impact on oil prices. In all, brokers spoke of a rather subdued trade, that has been reflected by the narrow range.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 957.50 dollars on Tuesday. This was 0.25 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 53,000 contracts the traded volume was on average.

Like the fundamental situation, the technical constellation has hardly changed as well. Markets are still overbought while the stochastic indicator remained bearish. The latter has shown little impact, however. The WTI crude has meanwhile formed a technical triangle which limits the leeway up as well as down. If oil prices exceed or fall below these limits, more technical buying resp. selling might be triggered.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures have edged lower in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The API's slightly bearish data on US oil inventories and retreating Asian equities prompted investors to take some profit. The traded volume is on average. Market participants now eye the performance of stock and forex markets and today's economic indicators. Later in the afternoon, the DOE is going to release its weekly data on US oil stocks.

API's: Crude oil +2.8; distillates -2.0; gasoline +01.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.4%
DOE's; due out tonight.
Forecasts: Crude oil -2.0; distillates -0.1; gasoline -1.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 14-8)

380cst $653
180cst $682
MGO $1000

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 14-8)

380cst $646
180cst $681
MGO $1005

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing, but gaining still with WTI +$0.29. Singapore paper is slowing as well with +$0.55 for 180cst and +$0.60 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst -$0.05 and 380cst -$0.40 with MGO contracts Aug +$0.45 and Sep +$0.44. The cargo market is mor bullish, gaining with 180cst +$5.21, 380cst +$4.90 and MGO +$0.66.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices gained approx. $5.0/mt during the local Platts window. The cargo premium improved slightly as the market saw a stronger buying yesterday. The delivered bunker premium remained around $6.00 - 7.00/mt above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker swap papers gained a little. Front month papers were up by approx. $1/mt in NWE and a few cents more in Asia. Forward prices gained approx. twice as much shredding another dollar from the backwardation discount. Calendar 2013 papers remain approx. $20/mt cheaper than the front month. Markets trade higher this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $660
180 cst $673
MGO $960

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

After last week's bullish end, the week continued with the bullishness. Continuing loading delays up to three days are reported. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 643
(1.0 %) :$ 703
180cst: $ 686
(1.0 %):$ 748
MGO 0.1%S: $958