Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $70.84 a barrel, 19 cents above their last close. Still, Brent is poised for an almost 3 percent drop for the week, its fifth straight week of decline, and WTI crude oil futures were at $65.73 per barrel at 06:29 GMT, 6 cents above their last settlement. WTI is set for a fifth weekly fall, down 4 percent so far this week. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, all the bearish factors seem to have caught up with the market. A no-technical-support level has been able to stop the market falling closer to $70. Since its peak in October, crude markets have seen a 20% fall - some $18 in the past 3 weeks on fuel prices. OPEC has been uncharacteristically quiet while this drop has been happening, going about its daily business, and massaging production figures to make it seem like its previously agreed cuts are still in operation. Interestingly, looking at the positions held on oil outlook, it looks like producers are collectively currently in a short position. There is just over 3 weeks until the official next OPEC meeting, plenty of time for meetings in dark smoke filled rooms, gentleman agreements, to then be leaked to the media, before confirming it at the official meeting in Vienna. It's a bit like watching the current British Government - apart from smoke-filled rooms are now banned (thanks Blair) and they don't mean to leak anything. And it's on that bombshell of an ending that we end the week. Watch out for the bottom feeders coming in to support the market as it's not going to freefall forever. For all those currently long, you must be thinking thank God it's Friday!! For all those short, why is it Friday already?!? Good weekend all.

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 8)

The front crack opened at -5.50, weakening to -6.25, before strengthening to -5.95. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.55.

Limited supplies of finished grade 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil for prompt deliveries have led to a spike in ex-wharf and delivered premiums of the marine fuel this week..

A lack of cutter stocks and the arrival of November arbitrage supplies only in the second half of the month have contributed to already tight Singapore fuel oil supplies, following limited arbitrage inflows in October..

380 cSt fuel oil ex-wharf premiums climbed to about $17 per tonne to Singapore quotes this week for deliveries in the second-half of the month, and potentially even higher for earlier deliveries..

Onshore fuel oil inventories rose 620,000 barrels (about 93,000 tonnes) to 16.076 million barrels, or 2.399 million tonnes.

Economic Events:

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 447.25 / 449.25

Jan19 - 437.50 / 439.50

Feb19 - 430.00 / 432.00

Mar19 - 424.50 / 426.50

Apr19 - 419.50 / 421.50

May19 - 414.25 / 416.25

Q1-19 - 430.75 / 432.75

Q2-19 - 414.50 / 416.50

Q3-19 - 394.25 / 396.75

Q4-19 - 362.75 / 365.25

CAL19 - 400.00 / 403.00

CAL20 - 340.50 / 346.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 453.00 / 455.00

Jan19 - 444.50 / 446.50

Feb19 - 438.25 / 440.25

Mar19 - 433.50 / 435.50

Apr19 - 428.75 / 430.75

May19 - 424.25 / 426.25

Q1-19 - 438.75 / 440.75

Q2-19 - 424.50 / 426.50

Q3-19 - 407.00 / 409.50

Q4-19 - 381.00 / 383.50

CAL19 - 412.00 / 415.00

CAL20 - 361.75 / 367.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 410.00 / 412.00

Jan19 - 403.75 / 405.75

Feb19 - 399.00 / 401.00

Mar19 - 394.25 / 396.25

Apr19 - 390.25 / 392.25

May19 - 385.50 / 387.50

Q1-19 - 399.00 / 401.00

Q2-19 - 386.00 / 388.00

Q3-19 - 365.75 / 368.25

Q4-19 - 331.75 / 334.25

CAL19 - 370.25 / 373.25

CAL20 - 313.75 / 319.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 640.02 / 642.02

Jan19 - 641.19 / 643.19

Feb19 - 640.42 / 642.42

Mar19 - 639.23 / 641.23

Apr19 - 638.43 / 640.43

May19 - 638.42 / 640.42

Q1-19 - 640.28 / 642.28

Q2-19 - 638.67 / 640.67

Q3-19 - 643.27 / 645.77

Q4-19 - 656.48 / 659.48

CAL19 - 643.86 / 647.86

CAL20 - 647.05 / 653.05

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 86.71 / 86.91

Jan19 - 86.65 / 86.85

Feb19 - 86.57 / 86.77

Mar19 - 86.54 / 86.74

Apr19 - 86.55 / 86.75

May19 - 86.55 / 86.75

Q1-19 - 86.49 / 86.89

Q2-19 - 86.43 / 86.83

Q3-19 - 86.78 / 87.08

Q4-19 - 87.13 / 87.53

CAL19 - 86.59 / 87.19

CAL20 - 86.39 / 87.39