Tue 30 Oct 2018, 09:48 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.


Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $77.22 a barrel at 06:25 GMT, down 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, U.S. WTI crude futures were firmer, at $67.11 a barrel, up 17 cents from their last settlement. A question that is asked a lot of periphery watchers of the oil markets is "What happens next?" Well, ladies and gents, if I had the answer, I sure wouldn't be writing them in a report, I'd be betting my house, my car, my dog, my in-laws all on the outcome and then I'd be able to say 'sayonara' to the early morning London commute. This first question is quickly followed by the second most popular question: "Why is the market going up/down?". The truth is that by the time you have worked out the reasons behind a market movement, it's already too late to do anything about it. For many drivers of day-to-day events, it's not the obvious well-researched fundamentals, but the workings of the financials, who see any neutral time or uncertainty of direction to take profit and wait for the next entry point. None of the fundamental points have changed that much, there's still U.S. sanctions coming into effect next month, still worries about global economy growth, and supply increases in the U.S. and potential for OPEC to turn on the taps. Yet we have had a significant drop over the past two weeks, based on what? Based on the P/L of the funds. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 29)

The front crack opened at -5.95, strengthening to -5.85, before weakening to -6.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.75.

Asia's fuel oil market resumed its steady ascent on Monday, with fuel oil cash premiums, front-month time spreads and refining margins climbing to fresh highs, as concerns over near-term supply continued to weigh.

The front-month Singapore 180-centistoke (cSt) fuel oil crack advanced for a fourth straight session and settled at a record high of $1.61 a barrel above Dubai crude oil, Refinitiv data showed.

The 380 cSt fuel oil November/December time spread climbed to $9 a tonne, its highest since end-July and up from $8.50 on Friday, Refinitiv data showed.

Cash premiums for 380 cSt fuel oil cargoes were also bid up to $8.51 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from $7.63 a tonne on Friday, and its highest since June 2015.

Economic Events: (Times are UK)

* 2pm: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Oct.

* 8:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

* Singapore International Energy Week, 1st day of 3, with executives from cos. including Jera, Engie, Siemens, EDF, Osaka Gas and Tellurian are due to speak at Singapore Energy Summit

* North Sea benchmark December loading programs

* Wood Mackenzie's IMO seminar

* Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference in Houston

* EARNINGS: BP, PetroChina, Anadarko

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 479.00 / 481.00

Dec18 - 470.00 / 472.00

Jan19 - 462.25 / 464.25

Feb19 - 455.75 / 457.75

Mar19 - 450.50 / 452.50

Apr19 - 445.50 / 447.50

Q1-19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q2-19 - 440.00 / 442.00

Q3-19 - 419.25 / 421.75

Q4-19 - 385.25 / 387.75

CAL19 - 428.75 / 431.75

CAL20 - 359.25 / 365.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 485.25 / 487.25

Dec18 - 477.50 / 479.50

Jan19 - 471.00 / 473.00

Feb19 - 465.00 / 467.00

Mar19 - 460.25 / 462.25

Apr19 - 456.00 / 458.00

Q1-19 - 465.50 / 467.50

Q2-19 - 450.75 / 452.75

Q3-19 - 433.00 / 435.50

Q4-19 - 404.75 / 407.25

CAL19 - 441.75 / 444.75

CAL20 - 381.25 / 387.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 447.50 / 449.50

Dec18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Jan19 - 432.50 / 434.50

Feb19 - 427.50 / 429.50

Mar19 - 423.00 / 425.00

Apr19 - 418.50 / 420.50

Q1-19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Q2-19 - 413.75 / 415.75

Q3-19 - 392.50 / 395.00

Q4-19 - 356.50 / 359.00

CAL19 - 401.25 / 404.25

CAL20 - 334.75 / 340.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Nov18 - 692.82 / 694.82

Dec18 - 686.22 / 688.22

Jan19 - 683.20 / 685.20

Feb19 - 682.17 / 684.17

Mar19 - 680.64 / 682.64

Apr19 - 680.49 / 682.49

Q1-19 - 682.00 / 684.00

Q2-19 - 679.84 / 681.84

Q3-19 - 682.29 / 684.79

Q4-19 - 685.27 / 688.27

CAL19 - 682.29 / 685.54

Sing GO 10ppm

Nov18 - 92.89 / 93.09

Dec18 - 91.98 / 92.18

Jan19 - 91.55 / 91.75

Feb19 - 91.31 / 91.51

Mar19 - 91.27 / 91.47

Apr19 - 91.24 / 91.44

Q1-19 - 91.37 / 91.57

Q2-19 - 91.25 / 91.45

Q3-19 - 91.43 / 91.63

Q4-19 - 91.64 / 91.84

CAL19 - 91.43 / 91.63

BP  

Rolls-Royce mtu engine test bench. Rolls-Royce Power Systems switches German engine test facilities to HVO fuel  

Company saved 3,200 tonnes of CO2 by end of 2025 after switching to renewable diesel.

MSC Migsan delivery ceremony. Changhong International delivers final LNG dual-fuel container ship 205 days early  

Chinese shipbuilder completes 10-vessel series for MSC with delivery of 11,500-teu MSC Migsan.

Seoul city skyline. Oilmar seeks senior and mid-level bunker traders in Seoul  

Marine fuel firm aims to recruit experienced traders for South Korean operations.

Morten Thomas Jacobsen, GEA. Global Ethanol Association to present on ethanol marine fuel at London shipping expo  

Morten Thomas Jacobsen will discuss ethanol fuel trials and maritime decarbonisation challenges in June.

Adrian Tolson, IBIA. IBIA warns of structural shift in marine fuel market following Middle East tensions  

Association chair says geopolitical disruptions signal lasting changes to bunker supply dynamics and pricing.

HMM Hamburg vessel. Rotterdam bunker volumes plunge 25% in first quarter amid regulatory shifts  

Fossil fuel sales decline sharply while alternative fuels show modest growth in Dutch port.

Camellia Dream vessel. Norsepower completes factory tests for 18 rotor sails bound for Airbus fleet  

Wind propulsion units cleared for installation on LD Armateurs vessels targeting 50% emissions reduction.

Frankie Russ vessel. Ernst Russ acquires four chemical tankers with five-year charters worth $126m  

Hamburg shipowner enters tanker segment with methanol-ready newbuildings delivering from Q4 2026.

Ammonia fuel system component. Wärtsilä boosts ammonia engine power output to match LNG equivalent  

Finnish technology group raises Wärtsilä 25 Ammonia engine output, enabling simpler vessel designs.

Aerial view of a cruiseship at sea. Fincantieri secures order for three LNG-fuelled cruise ships from Princess Cruises  

Italian shipbuilder to construct vessels at Monfalcone yard, with deliveries scheduled through 2039.