Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $72.46 down $0.15 and WTI closed down $0.16 to settle at $67.04. Here are some dates for you. 132 days until Christmas. 110 days until the next OPEC meeting. 19 days until the kids go back to school. The interesting statistic there, though, is the date the kids go back to school. Why? Because it is also Labour day in the US which marks the end of driving season. Judging by what API told us last night, you can't particularly say it has been a thirsty season in the US can you? All these forecasts of demand going through the roof have been met with the same enthusiasm as watching a Jose Mourinho press conference: "Eeeh, yes we play, we play like bulls, then we lose. I am special." Thanks Jose. Joking aside, gasoline demand in the US has been nothing short of appalling so far this year and stocks are still way higher than the 5-year average. It's not like a hurricane is on its way to blast through the USGC oil system either; it has been the quietest hurricane season in years in the Atlantic basin and without wishing any peril caused by these storms at all, you can't help but wonder if perhaps people had priced a hurricane or two in already. US refining margins started the year strongly, but have since petered out like an Indian batting performance. The only rescue for the US is the widening Brent/WTI spread but again, I think this is clutching at straws somewhat. The crude structure needs to see a real strong performance over the next few weeks regarding product demand in the US because after labour day, maintenance season is right around the corner. There's one card up everyone sleeve in a falling oil market though - Oh hello OPEC meeting in 110 days' time. Continue to watch cable and remember stats later at 3.30pm UK time. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Aug 14)

The front crack opened at -8.80, strengthening to -8.75, before weakening to -8.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.40.

Weaker sentiment on Tuesday saw Asia's fuel oil market extending losses as expectations of improved arbitrage supplies into Asia in September may begin to ease supply shortages that have characterised the market since around the start of summer.

The 380 cSt Sept/Oct time spread was trading at about $5.25 a tonne by Asia close, down from $5.75 a tonne on Monday, broker sources said

The front-month 380 cSt time spread is now at a one-week low, Reuters data showed.

The September 380 cSt barge crack to Brent crude was trading at a one-week low of minus $8.82 a barrel on Tuesday compared to minus $8.30 a barrel on Monday.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications Aug. 10, (prior -3.0%)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Empire Manufacturing Aug., est. 20, (prior 22.6)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Nonfarm Productivity 2Q prelim, est. 2.4%, (prior 0.4%)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Retail Sales Advance July m/m, est. 0.1%, (prior 0.5%)

* 2:15pm: U.S. Industrial Production July m/m, est. 0.3%, (prior 0.6%)

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report; TopLive blog starts 3:20pm

* Today: Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep18 - 422.00 / 424.00

Oct18 - 417.25 / 419.25

Nov18 - 414.00 / 416.00

Dec18 - 411.00 / 413.00

Jan19 - 407.75 / 409.75

Feb19 - 404.50 / 406.50

Q4-18 - 414.25 / 416.25

Q1-19 - 405.00 / 407.00

Q2-19 - 396.00 / 398.50

Q3-19 - 380.00 / 382.50

CAL19 - 381.75 / 384.75

CAL20 - 312.00 / 318.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Oct18 - 426.25 / 428.25

Nov18 - 423.50 / 425.50

Dec18 - 421.00 / 423.00

Jan19 - 418.25 / 420.25

Feb19 - 415.25 / 417.25

Q4-18 - 423.50 / 425.50

Q1-19 - 415.50 / 417.50

Q2-19 - 408.50 / 411.00

Q3-19 - 395.00 / 397.50

CAL19 - 397.00 / 400.00

CAL20 - 335.50 / 341.50

Rotterdam 3.5%

Sep18 - 401.50 / 403.50

Oct18 - 396.75 / 398.75

Nov18 - 393.25 / 395.25

Dec18 - 390.25 / 392.25

Jan19 - 388.00 / 390.00

Feb19 - 385.50 / 387.50

Q4-18 - 393.25 / 395.25

Q1-19 - 385.25 / 387.25

Q2-19 - 376.25 / 378.75

Q3-19 - 356.00 / 358.50

CAL19 - 360.00 / 363.00

CAL20 - 297.25 / 303.25