---

Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $73.05 per barrel at 0036 GMT, down 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. WTI crude futures were at $64.24 a barrel, down 82 cents, or 1.3 percent. The Simpsons is a programme way before its time, there's one moment that is pertinent today, when Homer offers Bart some advice when ending a relationship. He wrote a letter for him and it said "Dear Baby, Welcome to Dumpsville, Population: You". Now what has this got to do with the oil market? It seems that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in the middle of writing the very same letter to every other member of OPEC. They have to be careful, though; as we all know, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, so I am sure that even though the oil output agreement will effectively be ripped up come the end of the year, that there will be a "cooling off" period of some sort. The US/China trade war spat also reared its ugly, wig wearing head on Friday and it seems the market is in for a pretty brutal June. The US oil rig count continues to rise - albeit only by one, but a rise nonetheless. Bear in mind the US oil rig count is up 121 since the start of the year - a rise of 16%. WTI is up 10% over the same period, so someone is feeling thirsty in the Permian.

Fuel Oil Market (June 15)

The front crack opened at -10.20, strengthening to - 9.90 across the day. The Cal 19 was valued at -16.70.

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 2pm: Russia GDP for 1Q Y/Y, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%

* 3pm: U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for June, est. 70, prior 70

* EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report

* Angolan, Nigerian loading programs for August

* JODI export data

* OPEC delegates may start to arrive in Vienna for meeting Friday

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday’s EIA weekly inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 416.25 / 418.25

Aug18 - 412.00 / 414.00

Sep18 - 407.75 / 409.75

Oct18 - 403.75 / 405.75

Nov18 - 400.25 / 402.25

Dec18 - 397.00 / 399.00

Q3-18 - 412.00 / 414.00

Q4-18 - 400.50 / 402.50

Q1-19 - 390.25 / 392.75

Q2-19 - 380.25 / 382.75

CAL19 - 358.50 / 361.50

CAL20 - 283.50 / 288.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 427.00 / 429.00

Aug18 - 423.00 / 425.00

Sep18 - 418.50 / 420.50

Oct18 - 414.75 / 416.75

Nov18 - 411.50 / 413.50

Dec18 - 408.50 / 410.50

Q3-18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Q4-18 - 411.75 / 413.75

Q1-19 - 402.00 / 404.50

Q2-19 - 392.00 / 394.50

CAL19 - 373.00 / 376.00

CAL20 - 307.00 / 312.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 399.50 / 401.50

Aug18 - 396.00 / 398.00

Sep18 - 391.75 / 393.75

Oct18 - 387.25 / 389.25

Nov18 - 382.75 / 384.75

Dec18 - 378.50 / 380.50

Q3-18 - 395.75 / 397.75

Q4-18 - 383.25 / 385.25

Q1-19 - 373.00 / 375.50

Q2-19 - 359.50 / 362.00

CAL19 - 337.00 / 340.00

CAL20 - 270.00 / 275.00