Wed 11 Apr 2018, 09:02 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.04 up $2.39, WTI closed at $65.51, up $2.09, and INE closed at Y413.50 per bbl or $65.52. Quite a rally we have witnessed over the last 3 days, up 5%. I think we can only attribute this rally to the most tactful man since Jeremy Clarkson asked for some hot food - POTUS Donald Trump. The "Trump effect" really is quite something to behold. The market reacts in the same crazy way as how crazy his tweets are. Covfefe. My favourite Trump tweet, however, was "It's snowing and freezing in New York - We need global warming now!" Anyway, at least it is clear that the market genuinely believes that his threats regarding Russia, Venezuela, China and Iran are bullish for flat price and here Brent is at highs not seen since 2014. In other news, I read that the brainiacs who forecast global oil demand are wrong by approx 1 million bpd. "1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts," an OPEC analyst is quoted as saying, who added: "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million." So that's encouraging. Apparently, we will see a build in crude and gasoline stocks later, but API forecasts seem to be about as accurate as the same people who forecast demand, so let's wait and see.

Fuel Oil Market (April 10)

Crack opened wide at -11.50 and traded lower throughout the day to close at -12.40 on the back of higher crude.

Viscosity spread retreats from near two-year high - prompt-month viscosity spread slipped to about $13 a tonne on Tuesday after more than five sessions of sharp gains, fuel oil broker sources said. The balance-of-April viscosity spread on Monday settled at a near two-year high of $14 a tonne, up from $12.50 a tonne in the previous session and $9.50 a tonne at the start of the month. "The wide (viscosity) spread points at tight cutterstock availability as well as ample supplies of higher-viscosity material," said JBC Energy in a note to clients on Tuesday. The return of Pakistan as a fuel oil buyer has also tightened the low viscosity pool, said the Vienna-based research

Economic Data and Events

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI, March

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, March

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Today, no exact timing:

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Atlantic Council, Washington

** 19th China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, speakers are from Sinopec, National Development and Reform Commission, among others, 1st day of 2

** IEF in New Delhi, 2nd day of 3

** CPC loading program for May

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 3376.50 / 378.50

Jun18 - 375.75 / 377.75

Jul18 - 374.50 / 376.50

Aug18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Sep18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Oct18 - 368.25 / 370.25

Q3-18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Q4-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL19 - 327.00 / 332.00

CAL20 - 269.00 / 277.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Jun18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Jul18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Aug18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Sep18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Oct18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q3-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q4-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q1-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

Q2-19 - 364.00 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 347.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 301.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 364.75 / 366.75

Jun18 364.00 / 366.00

Jul18 362.25 / 364.25

Aug18 360.00 / 362.00

Sep18 357.25 / 359.25

Oct18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q3-18 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q1-19 341.50 / 344.00

Q2-18 332.25 / 335.25

CAL19 310.00 / 315.00

CAL20 260.50 / 268.50

BP  

Adrian Tolson, IBIA. IBIA warns of structural shift in marine fuel market following Arabian Gulf tensions  

Association chair says geopolitical disruptions signal lasting changes to bunker supply dynamics and pricing.

HMM Hamburg vessel. Rotterdam bunker volumes plunge 25% in first quarter amid regulatory shifts  

Fossil fuel sales decline sharply while alternative fuels show modest growth in Dutch port.

Camellia Dream vessel. Norsepower completes factory tests for 18 rotor sails bound for Airbus fleet  

Wind propulsion units cleared for installation on LD Armateurs vessels targeting 50% emissions reduction.

Frankie Russ vessel. Ernst Russ acquires four chemical tankers with five-year charters worth $126m  

Hamburg shipowner enters tanker segment with methanol-ready newbuildings delivering from Q4 2026.

Ammonia fuel system component. Wärtsilä boosts ammonia engine power output to match LNG equivalent  

Finnish technology group raises Wärtsilä 25 Ammonia engine output, enabling simpler vessel designs.

Aerial view of a cruiseship at sea. Fincantieri secures order for three LNG-fuelled cruise ships from Princess Cruises  

Italian shipbuilder to construct vessels at Monfalcone yard, with deliveries scheduled through 2039.

Ubuntu Humanity alongside Fuelng Bellina vessel. DNV says existing LNG infrastructure can support low-GHG methane transition  

Classification society finds biomethane and e-methane compatible with current LNG fleet and bunkering networks.

IBIA bunker buyers working group graphic. IBIA launches Bunker Buyers Working Group for fuel procurement end users  

New forum aims to represent shipowners, charterers and ship managers in policy and regulatory discussions.

Carbon registry process diagram. MOL and Shell launch book-and-claim scheme for marine biofuel emissions credits  

Japanese shipping firm partners with Shell to offer environmental attribute certificates from third-party vessel operations.

Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) policy brief cover. Bureau Veritas releases report on EU Renewable Energy Directive’s impact on shipping  

Classification society examines RED III compliance challenges as member states transpose the directive into national law.