Wed 11 Apr 2018, 09:02 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.04 up $2.39, WTI closed at $65.51, up $2.09, and INE closed at Y413.50 per bbl or $65.52. Quite a rally we have witnessed over the last 3 days, up 5%. I think we can only attribute this rally to the most tactful man since Jeremy Clarkson asked for some hot food - POTUS Donald Trump. The "Trump effect" really is quite something to behold. The market reacts in the same crazy way as how crazy his tweets are. Covfefe. My favourite Trump tweet, however, was "It's snowing and freezing in New York - We need global warming now!" Anyway, at least it is clear that the market genuinely believes that his threats regarding Russia, Venezuela, China and Iran are bullish for flat price and here Brent is at highs not seen since 2014. In other news, I read that the brainiacs who forecast global oil demand are wrong by approx 1 million bpd. "1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts," an OPEC analyst is quoted as saying, who added: "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million." So that's encouraging. Apparently, we will see a build in crude and gasoline stocks later, but API forecasts seem to be about as accurate as the same people who forecast demand, so let's wait and see.

Fuel Oil Market (April 10)

Crack opened wide at -11.50 and traded lower throughout the day to close at -12.40 on the back of higher crude.

Viscosity spread retreats from near two-year high - prompt-month viscosity spread slipped to about $13 a tonne on Tuesday after more than five sessions of sharp gains, fuel oil broker sources said. The balance-of-April viscosity spread on Monday settled at a near two-year high of $14 a tonne, up from $12.50 a tonne in the previous session and $9.50 a tonne at the start of the month. "The wide (viscosity) spread points at tight cutterstock availability as well as ample supplies of higher-viscosity material," said JBC Energy in a note to clients on Tuesday. The return of Pakistan as a fuel oil buyer has also tightened the low viscosity pool, said the Vienna-based research

Economic Data and Events

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI, March

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, March

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Today, no exact timing:

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Atlantic Council, Washington

** 19th China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, speakers are from Sinopec, National Development and Reform Commission, among others, 1st day of 2

** IEF in New Delhi, 2nd day of 3

** CPC loading program for May

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 3376.50 / 378.50

Jun18 - 375.75 / 377.75

Jul18 - 374.50 / 376.50

Aug18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Sep18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Oct18 - 368.25 / 370.25

Q3-18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Q4-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL19 - 327.00 / 332.00

CAL20 - 269.00 / 277.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Jun18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Jul18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Aug18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Sep18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Oct18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q3-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q4-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q1-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

Q2-19 - 364.00 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 347.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 301.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 364.75 / 366.75

Jun18 364.00 / 366.00

Jul18 362.25 / 364.25

Aug18 360.00 / 362.00

Sep18 357.25 / 359.25

Oct18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q3-18 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q1-19 341.50 / 344.00

Q2-18 332.25 / 335.25

CAL19 310.00 / 315.00

CAL20 260.50 / 268.50

BP  

TMS Tankers logo. Lloyd’s Register delivers fleet-wide energy transition roadmap for TMS Tankers  

LR Advisory maps vessel-level compliance risk and decarbonisation pathways across the Greek owner’s tanker fleet.

Dr Prapisala Thepsithar, GCMD. GCMD shares biofuel assurance and green finance insights at Hong Kong shipping decarbonisation forum  

The Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation presented pilot findings on biofuels and energy efficiency financing.

Laura Maersk ethanol bunkering graphic. Maersk conducts large-scale ethanol bunkering trial on Laura Maersk in Rotterdam  

A.P. Moller – Maersk has conducted a barge-delivered ethanol bunkering operation as part of ongoing fuel trials.

Luminara vessel truck-to-ship bunkering. MOL Techno-Trade completes first LNG bunkering for international cruise ship in Hokkaido  

Truck-to-ship LNG operation at Hakodate marks first such supply to an international cruise vessel in Hokkaido.

Acta Gemini vessel. Acta Marine takes delivery of methanol dual-fuel CSOV Acta Gemini for RWE wind farm charter  

The vessel will support operations at the Sofia Offshore Wind Farm at Dogger Bank.

Yeva Wood and Kirsten Møller Jørgensen. Malik Supply expands Danish team with bunker trader and finance hire  

Danish bunker supplier Malik Supply adds two new staff across its Fredericia and Aalborg offices.

AiP award ceremony for a 10,000-teu biofuel-powered container ship. HJSC wins AiP for 10,000-teu biofuel-powered container ship design  

South Korean shipbuilder HJ Shipbuilding & Construction receives classification society approval for its biofuel vessel design at Posidonia.

Active vessel. Capital Clean Energy Carriers takes delivery of LNG carrier and dual-fuel gas carrier, secures five new charters  

Athens-based CCEC expands its fleet and pushes contracted revenue backlog to $3.1bn.

VPS logo. Fuel quality management for vessels in extended idle: Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and adjacent anchorages | Rahul Choudhuri, VPS  

Managing fuel quality deterioration following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Person signing a document. Agastya Green Fuels signs 250,000 t/yr e-methanol offtake deal with Sri Lanka’s SAR Group  

Indian producer and Sri Lankan maritime firm agree long-term green methanol supply partnership.