Wed 11 Apr 2018, 09:02 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.04 up $2.39, WTI closed at $65.51, up $2.09, and INE closed at Y413.50 per bbl or $65.52. Quite a rally we have witnessed over the last 3 days, up 5%. I think we can only attribute this rally to the most tactful man since Jeremy Clarkson asked for some hot food - POTUS Donald Trump. The "Trump effect" really is quite something to behold. The market reacts in the same crazy way as how crazy his tweets are. Covfefe. My favourite Trump tweet, however, was "It's snowing and freezing in New York - We need global warming now!" Anyway, at least it is clear that the market genuinely believes that his threats regarding Russia, Venezuela, China and Iran are bullish for flat price and here Brent is at highs not seen since 2014. In other news, I read that the brainiacs who forecast global oil demand are wrong by approx 1 million bpd. "1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts," an OPEC analyst is quoted as saying, who added: "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million." So that's encouraging. Apparently, we will see a build in crude and gasoline stocks later, but API forecasts seem to be about as accurate as the same people who forecast demand, so let's wait and see.

Fuel Oil Market (April 10)

Crack opened wide at -11.50 and traded lower throughout the day to close at -12.40 on the back of higher crude.

Viscosity spread retreats from near two-year high - prompt-month viscosity spread slipped to about $13 a tonne on Tuesday after more than five sessions of sharp gains, fuel oil broker sources said. The balance-of-April viscosity spread on Monday settled at a near two-year high of $14 a tonne, up from $12.50 a tonne in the previous session and $9.50 a tonne at the start of the month. "The wide (viscosity) spread points at tight cutterstock availability as well as ample supplies of higher-viscosity material," said JBC Energy in a note to clients on Tuesday. The return of Pakistan as a fuel oil buyer has also tightened the low viscosity pool, said the Vienna-based research

Economic Data and Events

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI, March

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, March

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Today, no exact timing:

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Atlantic Council, Washington

** 19th China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, speakers are from Sinopec, National Development and Reform Commission, among others, 1st day of 2

** IEF in New Delhi, 2nd day of 3

** CPC loading program for May

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 3376.50 / 378.50

Jun18 - 375.75 / 377.75

Jul18 - 374.50 / 376.50

Aug18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Sep18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Oct18 - 368.25 / 370.25

Q3-18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Q4-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL19 - 327.00 / 332.00

CAL20 - 269.00 / 277.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Jun18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Jul18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Aug18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Sep18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Oct18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q3-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q4-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q1-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

Q2-19 - 364.00 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 347.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 301.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 364.75 / 366.75

Jun18 364.00 / 366.00

Jul18 362.25 / 364.25

Aug18 360.00 / 362.00

Sep18 357.25 / 359.25

Oct18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q3-18 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q1-19 341.50 / 344.00

Q2-18 332.25 / 335.25

CAL19 310.00 / 315.00

CAL20 260.50 / 268.50

BP  

Decab Hub and MMMCZCS logos. Lloyd’s Register and Maersk Mc-Kinney Møller Center launch ammonia safety and training resources for shipping  

New tools aim to help operators build the safety management and competency frameworks needed for ammonia-fuelled vessels.

Kevin Dohmen, IBT Bunkering & Trading. IBT Bunkering & Trading appoints Kevin Döhmen to manage new Singapore office  

Döhmen tasked with developing IBT’s operation in the Asian city-state.

Peak Skarv 3 vessel. Peak takes delivery of third S-class vessel and cuts steel for ammonia-fuelled ship  

Norwegian operator marks two events at Chinese yard as ammonia-powered newbuild programme advances.

Launching ceremony of Minerva Helen. New Times Shipbuilding launches LNG dual-fuel tanker for Minerva  

112,500-dwt Minerva Helen launched at shipyard in Jiangsu, China.

Hansa Drejoe vessel. Leonhardt & Blumberg equips first of four newbuilds with Econowind VentoFoils  

German shipowner installs wind-assisted propulsion technology aboard general cargo vessel Hansa Drejoe.

Green Pearl vessel at Port of Civitavecchia. Axpo and Vitol launch LNG bunkering at the Port of Civitavecchia  

Operation marks the extension of Axpo’s LNG bunkering network to third major Italian port.

Grande Pacifico vessel. Grimaldi takes delivery of ammonia-ready Grande Pacifico  

9,800-ceu ship is the largest PCTC in the Neapolitan Group’s fleet and the first of five sister vessels on order.

Regional seminar on alternative fuels and new technologies. IMO seminar in Trinidad and Tobago trains Caribbean maritime educators for the alternative fuels era  

A five-day regional seminar in Port of Spain addressed ammonia, methanol and hydrogen training for seafarers.

Summit Arbutus vessel. Corvus Energy wins 40 MWh battery contract for BC Ferries’ new biofuel-compatible Summit Class vessels  

Norwegian battery supplier to power four new hybrid-electric ferries for Canada’s BC Ferries.

Fleetzero Leviathan Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). ABS issues product design assessment for Fleetzero’s Leviathan battery system  

The first US-manufactured lithium iron phosphate marine battery system receives classification society approval.