Fri 2 Sep 2016, 08:37 GMT

Market fundamentals always matter


Oil and fuel oil hedging market update.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed down 1.59 last night to $45.45 and WTI closed down 1.54 to $43.16. One thing that has always amazed me in life is that at some point someone must have been walking on a beach and said "Hang on a minute, if I heat this sand up to a really high temperature until it forms a liquid and then set it in a frame, I will make glass!! windows in my mud hut!". There must have also been some poor souls who would have tested what to eat, this berry, that berry, nope he's dead, don't eat that, can eat this etc etc. Amazing. It reminds me of this market - Neanderthal like. It comes down to our evolution and this market is trying to evolve and tell everyone that the fundamentals don't matter. But they do. It's like a crab apple one of those poor blokes must have eaten, looks a good idea but will inevitably eat your insides. Flat price has dropped 8.5% this week and that's notwithstanding a hurricane in the USGC/AC, a Saudi minister saying they will do what is necessary and Iraq apparently saying they will join a freeze. Anyone who wants to buy this market is, quite frankly, as made as SpaceX rocket programme. Good weekend.

Economic data/events:

* 10am: Eurozone July PPI m/m, est. 0.1% (prior 0.7%); Eurozone July PPI y/y, est. -2.9% (prior -3.1%)
* ~1pm: Bloomberg publishes OPEC production survey (Aug.)
* 1:30pm: U.S. Census Bureau releases crude-export data through July
* 1:30pm: U.S. Aug. unemployment rate, est. 4.8% (prior 4.9%); U.S. Aug change in nonfarm payrolls, est. 180k (prior 255k)
* 1:30pm: U.S. July trade balance, est. -$41.4b (prior - $44.5b)
* 3pm: U.S. July factory orders, est. 2% (prior -1.5%); U.S. durable goods orders for July F, est. 4.4% (prior 4.4%); U.S. durables ex transportation for July F, est. 1.5% (prior 1.5%)
* 6pm: Baker Hughes wkly U.S. oil rig count, prior 406
* ~8:30pm: CFTC wkly commitment of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts
* Today: Russian ministry provides prelim. oil production, export statistics (Aug.)

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct16 220.50 / 222.50
Nov16 218.00 / 220.00
Dec16 217.25 / 219.25
Jan17 219.25 / 221.25
Feb17 220.25 / 222.25
Mar17 221.25 / 223.25
Q4-16 218.00 / 221.00
Q1-17 220.00 / 223.00
Q2-17 222.50 / 226.50
Q3-17 224.25 / 229.25
CAL 17 222.50 / 226.50
CAL18 236.00 / 244.00

Singapore 180cst

Oct16 - 240.75 / 242.75
Nov16 - 239.75 / 241.75
Dec16 - 239.50 / 241.50
Jan17 - 238.75 / 240.75
Feb17 - 239.00 / 241.00
Mar17 - 240.00 / 242.00
Q4-16 - 239.50 / 242.50
Q1-17 - 239.75 / 242.75
Q2-17 - 242.25 / 246.25
Q3-17 - 244.50 / 249.50
CAL 17 - 243.00 / 247.00
CAL18 - 260.00 / 268.00

Singapore 380cst

Oct16 - 235.25 / 237.25
Nov16 - 234.00 / 236.00
Dec16 - 233.00 / 235.00
Jan17 - 232.75 / 234.75
Feb17 - 232.75 / 234.75
Mar17 - 233.50 / 235.50
Q4-16 - 233.50 / 236.50
Q1-17 - 233.50 / 236.50
Q2-17 - 235.75 / 239.75
Q3-17 - 237.50 / 242.50
CAL 17 - 235.75 / 239.75
CAL18 - 251.00 / 259.00



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


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