---

Crude oil prices edged down in Asia this morning with another look at U.S. production levels ahead expected to set the near-term tone.

The technical situation at the oil market stayed slightly bullish on Thursday morning after the price rally in the first half of the week. When WTI reached its upper Bollinger band oil futures started consolidating. The IEA monthly energy report caused upward tests as the agency upwardly revised its global demand forecast for 2015 as well as its forecast concerning non-OPEC production. In spite of the slightly bullish report, profit taking from long positions on Tuesday and Wednesday predominated the market around midday and oil futures eyed their supports. The fact that the World Bank revised down its global economic growth forecast from 3.0% to 2.8% and the fresh increase in US crude oil production (weekly US oil inventory data as per DOE) weighed on oil futures. Oil futures kept their weak tendency in late trading due to Saudi Arabia's comments that the country will keep its record production level in the course of the next few months and that it might even increase production if necessary and due to the easing euro due to which oil futures got more expensive for traders outside the United States. Therefore, oil futures finally settled lower near their Thursday's lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 589.25 USD on Thursday, this is -6.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 95,500 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The upper Bollinger band at the WTI chart limited upward potential this week. The stochastic indicator's lines at the WTI, the Brent and the Gasoil chart already converge but didn't cross sustainably yet. A crossing of these lines would trigger selling signals. The 7 day moving average and the 21 day moving average at the WTI chart could also trigger important signals. If the 7 day moving average drops below the 21 day moving average, a bearish signal would be triggered and if it surpasses the 21 day moving average a buying signal might be triggered. The technical constellation is rather instable this morning and is to be interpreted as neutral. Market players will have to eye possible signals of the stochastic indicator and of the moving averages and yesterday's lows which currently are key supports.

U.S.

Nymex below average: Oil futures stay in a rather narrow range this morning and are waiting for fresh signals. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today, as well as for the Baker Hughes report which is to be released in the late evening.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-6)
380cst $344
180cst $470
MGO $636

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-6)
380cst $350
180cst $415
MGO $624

Singapore (delivered indications 12-6)

WTI is losing with -$1.18. Singapore paper is down with -$11.60 for 180cst with -$10.75 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst -$8.90 and 380cst with -$8.50 with MGO contracts Jun gaining with -$1.52 and in Jul with -$1.49. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst +$2.94, 380cst with +$0.75 and MGO down with -$0.45.

380cst $368
180cst $381
MGO $573

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-6)

380cst $360
180cst $381
MGO $726

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $332
MGO 0.1%S: $562