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Brent oil futures sank to the lowest level in more than four years this morning, amid indications the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to relieve a global supply glut.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX were in consolidation mode on Wednesday and consolidated in a narrow range in early trading. ICE Gasoil and NYMEX Heating Oil orientated upward as distillate figures were expected to be bulish in the US oil inventory data. Brent and WTI were unimpressed by this consolidation. Since the OPEC's monthly report hardly influenced price levels, almost no important signals were triggered. But the release of the EIA's monthly report stirred the market leaving a bearish impression by its sharp down revisions of price forecasts. Quotations dropped and Brent slipped for the first time since October 2010 below the 80.00 USD mark. The API's oil inventory report had a slightly bullish influence but had no sustainable effect on prices at the oil market in London and New York which settled lower in the evening.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 728.25 USD on Wednesday, this is 4.75 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 104,200 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The stochastic indicator gave no fresh signals this morning as it has already generated its selling signals ni the last few days. The indicator's line don't diverge anymore which indicates that the bearish influence decreases. But the stochastic indicator stays bearish while the RSI stays (furthe) without any important signals. In case that the RSI breaches the 30 line from bottom to top, a new bullish buying signal will be triggered favoring technical upward movement. But Brent breached the important psychological 80.00 USD support and triggered therefore further downside. We consider the technical constellation as slightly brearish, as long as the stochastic indicator's bearish influence isn't completely neutralised and bullish signals keep missing.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: Futures stabilised again after yesterday night's sharp downward movement and the API's US oil inventory data are to be interpreted slightly bullish. But futures declined in early European trading breaching further supports. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and will eye the situation in the geopolitical hotspots. Today, there are no important economic indicators on the agenda as well as the DOE data to be released this afternoon at 5.00 p.m.

Forecast: Crude oil -0.5; Distillates -1.6; Gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +1.1; Distillates -1.5; Gasoline +0.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-11)
380cst $445
180cst $539
MGO $834

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-11)
380cst $458
180cst $523
MGO $832

Singapore (delivered indications 13-11)

WTI is losing with -$1.29 Singapore paper is down with -$3.85 for 180cst with -$3.75 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$4.50 and 380cst with -$4.50 with MGO contracts Nov bearish with -$1.40 and in Dec with -$1.50. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$2.86, 380cst gaining with -$0.81 and MGO with -$0.28.

380cst $488
180cst $506
MGO $735

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-11)

380cst $475
180cst $525
MGO $931

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $438
(1.0 %) : $445
MGO 0.1%S: $724