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Mon 27 Nov 2017 08:50

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.

Fuel Oil Market (November 24)

The front crack opened at -8.60, weakened to -8.70, before strengthening to -8.85. The Cal 18 was valued at -8.00.

Expectations of rising arbitrage supplies into Singapore in December weighed on the front-month time spreads and pushed refining margins of the fuel to fresh multi-week lows on Friday.

Meanwhile, tighter spot availability of finished bunker grade 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil in Singapore kept ex-wharf premiums of the fuel elevated this week at premiums around $3-$5 a tonne with several suppliers quoting the earliest spot availabilities around Dec. 1.

Fuel oil stocks in ARA oil hub fell for a second week straight, down 18 percent, or 238,000 tonnes, from the previous week to a total of 1.049 million tonnes in the week ended Nov. 23. Compared to the same time last year, however, ARA fuel oil inventories are 61 percent higher.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

* 3pm: U.S. New Home Sales for October

* 3:30pm: Dallas Fed. Manf Activity for November

* Today, no exact timing:

** Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories

** OPEC delegates may start to arrive in Vienna for meeting Thursday

** CFTC weekly commitments of traders report for data on various U.S. futures and options contracts (from Friday, postponed due to U.S. Holiday)

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec17 - 363.00 / 365.00

Jan18 - 361.75 / 363.75

Feb18 - 360.75 / 362.75

Mar18 - 359.50 / 361.50

Apr18 - 358.25 / 360.25

May18 - 357.00 / 359.00

Q1-18 - 360.75 / 362.75

Q2-18 - 357.00 / 359.00

Q3-18 - 351.75 / 354.25

Q4-18 - 346.50 / 349.00

CAL18 - 355.25 / 358.25

CAL19 - 320.75 / 325.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec17 - 367.25 / 369.25

Jan18 - 366.00 / 368.00

Feb18 - 365.50 / 367.50

Mar18 - 364.75 / 366.75

Apr18 - 364.00 / 366.00

May18 - 363.75 / 365.75

Q1-18 - 365.50 / 367.50

Q2-18 - 363.25 / 365.25

Q3-18 - 358.25 / 360.75

Q4-18 -353.00 / 355.50

CAL18 - 361.50 / 364.50

CAL19 - 329.50 / 334.50

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Dec17 344.50 / 346.50

Jan18 344.75 / 346.75

Feb18 344.75 / 346.75

Mar18 344.50 / 346.50

Apr18 344.25 / 346.25

May18 343.75 / 345.75

Q1-18 344.75 / 346.75

Q2-18 342.50 / 344.50

Q3-18 337.50 / 340.00

Q4-18 328.50 / 331.00

CAL18 338.25 / 341.25

CAL19 299.75 / 304.75

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