---

Commentary

Brent closed last night up $0.98 to $62.20 and WTI closed at $56.69, up $0.73. Well, much like everyone waking up bleary-eyed after their Christmas party, crude has gone sideways. Since last week's OPEC meeting, we are down around 45c on front Brent or 0.006%. Gee, what a result. Not. Bored. But why hasn't crude reacted to what OPEC thought would bring mucho, mucho Christmas cheer? Simple really - it had already priced it in. There were no surprises and, if anything, there is actual cause for concern. It seems as if oil production is not really dropping; the US is filling any voids left by the caverns that OPEC are opening up (shale pun intended there). And demand is not really growing either. In fact, I would actually say that it is looking a bit grim. Here's a fact for you: China's debt has ballooned and is now equivalent to 234% of the country's total output, according to the IMF. I think it incredibly harsh that China is still seen as the global growth indicator. Their economy has grown exponentially year after year after year, yet still everyone pins hopes that China will be there to save the day. This, I fear, is dangerously ignorant. With Chinese New year not far away, I think demand data for the period leading up to the year of the dog will be pivotal for the crude price for 2018.

Fuel Oil Market (December 7)

The front crack opened at -9.25, strengthening to -9.00, before weakening to -9.25. The Cal 18 was valued at -8.25.

Asia's January 180 fuel oil crack to Brent crude on Thursday extended losses for a sixth straight session, hitting a seven-month low, dragged by low demand and rising inventories.

Profits on refining fuel oil have been hammered to multimonth lows over the past two weeks on emerging signs of growing supply and faltering demand, retreating from stubbornly elevated levels at the start of the quarter. Indications of growing supply and weaker demand conditions have recently dragged on fuel oil refining margins.

Singapore onshore fuel oil inventories climbed 5%, or 174,000 tonnes, to a five-week high of 3.61 million tonnes in the week to Dec. 6, official data shows. This came as net imports into Singapore rose 52% from a week earlier to a six-week high of 934,000 tonnes.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 9:30am: U.K. Industrial production m/m est. 0% (prior 0.7%)

* 1:30pm: U.S. unemployment rate est. 4.1% (prior 4.1%)

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly scheduled report on futures and options positions

* ICIS China Conference, final day

* See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

Jan18 - 348.25 / 350.25

Feb18 - 348.50 / 350.50

Mar18 - 349.00 / 351.00

Apr18 - 349.25 / 351.25

May18 - 349.00 / 351.00

Jun18 - 348.50 / 350.50

Q1-18 - 348.75 / 350.75

Q2-18 - 349.25 / 351.25

Q3-18 - 347.00 / 349.50

Q4-18 - 343.75 / 346.25

CAL18 - 349.00 / 352.00

CAL19 - 314.00 / 319.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Jan18 - 352.75 / 354.75

Feb18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Mar18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Apr18 - 354.75 / 356.75

May18 - 354.75 / 356.75

Jun18 - 354.25 / 356.25

Q1-18 - 353.25 / 355.25

Q2-18 - 354.75 / 356.75

Q3-18 - 353.00 / 355.50

Q4-18 - 350.00 / 352.50

CAL18 - 354.75 / 357.75

CAL19 - 322.75 / 327.75

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Jan18 333.00 / 335.00

Feb18 334.25 / 336.25

Mar18 335.25 / 337.25

Apr18 335.75 / 337.75

May18 335.50 / 337.50

Jun18 335.00 / 337.00

Q1-18 334.25 / 336.25

Q2-18 335.25 / 337.25

Q3-18 332.00 / 334.50

Q4-18 324.75 / 327.25

CAL18 333.75 / 336.75

CAL19 294.75 / 299.75