Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:05 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed up $0.86 last night to $59.30 and WTI closed at $52.64, up $0.46. Well, Brent is up 3.5% this week. Forwardddddd march! Up to $60, $70? Dare I say it, will $100 per bbl oil be on the most bullish of economists' forecasts soon? This market is brutal though. I mean, don't get me wrong, it is brilliant if you're a producer; they must be looking forward to next year's summer holidays already. But how is everyone else faring in this relentlessly bullish market? Trading margins seem so thin and there is no market structure to make anything work out further than 10 days, so perhaps next year it will be more of a greedy volume game as opposed to putting something in storage and relying on the market structure to do the work for you. Freight values seem to have gone a little haywire - even if the actual fixtures aren't there to back up the market's insatiable appetite for arbitrage spreads currently. Granted, new flat rates will be out soon and the fat cats at Worldscale are waiting to unleash 2018 numbers, so keep an eye over the next few weeks with an eye like Mad-Eye Moody.

Fuel Oil Market (October 26)

The front crack opened at -7.85, weakening to -8.05, during the Barges trading window. The Cal 18 was valued at -8.15.

Rising inventories in Singapore weighed on Asia's fuel oil crack, which slipped to a near two-week low but remained well within its recent trading range. The November 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Dubai crude narrowed to minus $2.41 a barrel, its narrowest discount since Oct. 10

Similarly, the November 180 cSt discount to Brent crude fell to $4.36 a barrel, its narrowest discount since Oct. 10.

Singapore's net exports of fuel oil to China topped the weekly list (279,000 tonnes); followed by Hong Kong (240,000 tonnes) and Indonesia (36,000 tonnes).

Largest Singapore net imports originated from Russia (527,000 tonnes); followed by the UAE (242,000 tonnes), Malaysia (214,000 tonnes), and Venezuela (146,000).

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 7:45am: France consumer confidence for Oct., est. 101 (prior 101)

* 1:30pm: U.S. GDP annualized q/q for 3Q, advance, est. 2.6% (prior 3.1%)

* 3pm: U.S. University of Michigan sentiment for Oct., final, est. 100.7 (prior 101.1)

* 6pm: U.S. Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil, gas rig counts

* 6pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report

* 8:30pm: U.S. CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on futures and options contracts

** Africa oil week, final day

** Singapore International Energy Week, Day 5, including Nordic Green Dialogue

** Russia final Urals program for Nov.

** Earnings: Total, Eni SpA, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Phillips 66, Imperial Oil

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov17 - 338.50 / 340.50

Dec17 - 337.25 / 339.25

Jan18 - 335.25 / 337.25

Feb18 - 333.75 / 335.75

Mar18 - 332.50 / 334.50

Apr18 - 331.25 / 333.25

Q1-18 - 334.00 / 336.00

Q2-18 - 330.00 / 332.00

Q3-18 - 325.75 / 328.25

Q4-18 - 321.75 / 324.25

CAL18 - 329.50 / 332.50

CAL19 - 298.50 / 303.50

CAL20 - 268.50 / 275.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov17 - 343.25 / 345.25

Dec17 - 342.25 / 344.25

Jan18 - 341.00 / 343.00

Feb18 - 340.25 / 342.25

Mar18 - 339.25 / 341.25

Apr18 - 338.25 / 340.25

Q1-18 - 340.25 / 342.25

Q2-18 - 336.75 / 338.75

Q3-18 - 332.50 / 335.00

Q4-18 - 329.50 / 332.00

CAL18 - 336.25 / 339.25

CAL19 - 307.25 / 312.25

CAL20 - 278.25 / 285.25

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Nov17 319.75 / 321.75

Dec17 316.25 / 318.25

Jan18 315.75 / 317.75

Feb18 315.50 / 317.50

Mar18 315.25 / 317.25

Apr18 314.75 / 316.75

Q1-18 315.50 / 317.50

Q2-18 314.00 / 316.00

Q3-18 309.50 / 312.00

Q4-18 302.25 / 304.75

CAL18 311.50 / 314.50

CAL19 278.50 / 283.50

CAL20 247.75 / 254.75


CMA CGM Notre Dame vessel at Singapore Port. Singapore 12-month bunker calls hit all-time high in July  

TTM calls at world's largest bunkering hub reach record levels despite softer sales volumes.

Cargo port in Singapore. Singapore T3M bunker sales stay below 14m tonnes for fourth month running  

Rolling three-month volumes remain subdued despite modest month-on-month recovery in July.

Shore power system launch at Port of Callao. Peru’s Port of Callao launches first shore power system in Latin America  

DP World Callao’s onshore power supply system could cut over 6,300 tonnes of CO₂ annually.

Aristodimos vessel. New Times Shipbuilding delivers LNG dual-fuel crude oil tanker to Capital  

Chinese yard hands over 155,500-dwt vessel in ceremony attended by owner’s representative.

MSC Sabrina and Alice Cosulich ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering operation. Shell completes maiden LNG bunkering operation in Valencia  

Delivery to MSC vessel facilitated by Fratelli Cosulich said to be first-ever LNG bunker supply at Spanish port.

Marina Bay Sands, Singapore. PIL hiring senior marine fuels executive to manage global bunkering operations  

Singapore-based role includes oversight of fuel procurement and delivery operations, covering PIL's fleet of container and multi-purpose vessels.

Steel-cutting ceremony of vessels with builder's hull nos. CHB2083 and CHB2084. Changhong International Shipbuilding cuts steel on two more 3100-teu boxships for Costamare  

HSFO-fuelled vessels feature scrubbers, SCR systems and shore power connections to meet emissions requirements.

Decab Hub and MMMCZCS logos. Lloyd’s Register and Maersk Mc-Kinney Møller Center launch ammonia safety and training resources for shipping  

New tools aim to help operators build the safety management and competency frameworks needed for ammonia-fuelled vessels.

Kevin Dohmen, IBT Bunkering & Trading. IBT Bunkering & Trading appoints Kevin Döhmen to manage new Singapore office  

Döhmen tasked with developing IBT’s operation in the Asian city-state.

Peak Skarv 3 vessel. Peak takes delivery of third S-class vessel and cuts steel for ammonia-fuelled ship  

Norwegian operator marks two events at Chinese yard as ammonia-powered newbuild programme advances.