Fri 24 Jun 2016 10:26

Moody's downgrades shipping sector outlook


Credit rating firm says the supply-demand imbalance 'will persist over the coming 12 to 18 months'.



On Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service Report downgraded its outlook on rated shipping companies, saying that combined earnings would likely decline this year by 7 to 10 percent.

The New York-headquartered firm now considers the outlook for the sector to be negative despite rating it as stable in March with an anticipated low single figure drop in earnings overall.

Whilst tanker shipping remains stable, Moody's said that container shipping and dry bulk shipping remain beset by the problem of too many ships and too-slow growth in demand.

"Capacity is already high, and we expect supply growth will continue to outpace demand growth by more than 2% in 2016, supporting the negative outlook on the segment," the report read. "The existing supply-demand imbalance will persist over the coming 12 to 18 months."

Moody's expects the container shipping industry will be hampered by subdued demand for finished and semi-finished goods. Whilst dry bulk shipping - already suffering from the twin blows of declining commodity prices and an increase in capacity despite weak demand - will continue to deteriorate over the next few years, the credit rating specialist said.

The report may well dampen overall confidence levels in the shipping industry which rose slightly in the three months to May 2016, according to the May 2016 Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

However, even then, economic and geopolitical uncertainty was uppermost in the thoughts of many of their respondents. "Overall world economic growth is still not moving concertedly in a positive direction," said one, "so that we have what might best be described as a patchy global economic recovery."

The Shipping Confidence Survey at the time noted that in common with Moody's reporting, a surfeit of tonnage and a paucity of scrapping were referenced by a number of respondents. One respondent in the survey noted: "Far too many newbuildings in the ultra-to-VLOC size range will be hitting the market in the next 12-to-18 months," while elsewhere it was noted that what is needed is, "strong scrapping, fewer dry newbuildings, stiffer regulations, better and more uniform control."


European Union member state flags. Danish Shipping calls for EU to invest ETS revenues in green marine fuel production  

Industry body welcomes Commission's sustainable transport plan but urges concrete action on funding.

Illustration of green fuel production for ships and aircraft. Transport & Environment welcomes STIP but warns action needed by 2026 to secure e-fuels leadership  

EU transport plan takes steps to boost green fuel production for ships and planes.

Graphic announcing release of DNV Maritime Nuclear Propulsion White Paper. DNV claims nuclear propulsion could offer viable route to maritime decarbonisation  

Classification society publishes white paper examining technological, regulatory, and commercial challenges facing nuclear-powered merchant vessels.

Signatories of European Nuclear Maritime Cooperation Declaration. European nuclear declaration signed for maritime decarbonisation  

Over 30 companies sign cooperation agreement to advance small modular reactor technologies for shipping.

Victrol Omega vessel. Peninsula operates Omega barge for fuel supply in Belgian North Sea  

Victrol vessel said to be the only estuary barge of its size serving Belgian North Sea ports.

Sonan Energy Panama logo with white background. Sonan Energy Panama unveils new logo as part of sustainable energy transition  

Bunker firm introduces redesigned brand identity reflecting shift towards cleaner energy solutions.

Niclas Mårtensson, CEO of Stena Line. Stena Line to acquire Wasaline ferry operations in Baltic Sea expansion  

Swedish ferry operator signs deal to take over Umeå–Vaasa route with bio-LNG-powered vessel.

Arriva Shipping vessel Norbris. Berg Propulsion secures second Arriva retrofit after 10% fuel savings confirmed  

Norwegian shipowner orders second propulsion upgrade following verified efficiency gains on general cargo vessel Norjarl.

Dorthe Bendtsen and Anders Grønborg. Bunker Holding to absorb Baseblue into KPI OceanConnect by April 2026  

Integration follows earlier Hong Kong merger and aims to streamline operations and strengthen regional teams.

Chimbusco Pan Nation (CPN) new logo. CPN unveils new brand identity after 34 years in marine fuel supply  

Hong Kong bunker supplier launches rebrand centered on 'continuous evolution' and sustainable fuel solutions.