Thu 16 Aug 2012, 14:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After US economic data on the country's labor and housing market fell short of expectations, oil prices have edged higher. The ICE G.Oil has renewedly tested its first resistance. The WTI crude has approached the mark of 94.90 dollars. The weaker than anticipated data fuelled market players' hopes on new measures of monetary easing pressuring the dollar. With the euro profiting from this development, oil futures also added some gains.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have initially remained within Tuesday's range on Wednesday morning. A bullish survey and the API's bearish data have caused some insecurity among investors who were waiting for the DOE's data, published Wednesday afternoon. US economic data have had a basically positive tone bolstering oil prices in the course of the day. The euro that has retreated around noon, resp. the stronger dollar, have hardly weighed on quotations at ICE and NYMEX. Oil futures have rather tested their upward potential. The clearly bullish data on US oil inventories released by the DOE at 4.30 p.m. have made oil futures rally in the evening Prices climbed to new all-time highs breaching important key-resistance lines, for example the WTI crude's resistance at 93.75 dollars. This has triggered further technical buying orders accelerating the price increase. With a price of 116.72 dollars, the Brent has been the most expensive since the beginning of May, whereas the WTI crude has marked a new 3-month high at 94.90 dollars but still added less gains than the Brent.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 969.00 dollars on Wednesday. This was 11.50 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. With some 66,000 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic indicator has changed direction this morning, giving a first buying impulsion at the WTI and G.Oil charts. Technical analysts therefore assess the situation as slightly bullish this morning, even though the stochastic and the technical constellation only played a minor role in the past few days.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures hardly changed in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. Trade is still rather calm at oil markets. The latter have stuck to the high level they reached during yesterday's rally. The traded volume is slightly below average. Market participants now eye the performance of stock and forex markets and today's economic indicators.

API's: Crude oil +2.8; distillates -2.0; gasoline +01.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.4%.
DOE's; Crude oil -3.7; distillates +0.7; gasoline -2.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +/- 0%.
Forecasts: Crude oil -2.0; distillates -0.1; gasoline -1.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 15-8)

380cst $651
180cst $682
MGO $1005

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 15-8)

380cst $653
180cst $689
MGO $1010

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$0.71. Singapore paper is back up as well with +$12.75 for 180cst and +$12.35 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$12.80 and 380cst +$12.15 with MGO contracts Sep +$2.45 and Oct +$2.50. The cargo market is mixed, turning bearish with 180cst -$0.27, 380cst +$0.20 and MGO +$0.57.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices were up more than +$2.5 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $5.50 to $6.00 above cargo prices. The demand was slow yesterday dampened by the recent few days of stronger outright prices. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $660
180 cst $673
MGO $960

Fujairah (delivered indications 15-8)

380cst $680
180cst $699
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA continues with the bullishness. Continuing loading delays up to three days are reported. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 654
(1.0 %) :$ 711
180cst: $ 690
(1.0 %):$ 754
MGO 0.1%S: $975

MGO  

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