Thu 2 Aug 2012, 12:14 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices have bolstered on a stronger Euro. Investors eye the ECB's meeting this afternoon that is to bring about supportive measures of monetary policy to combat the debt crisis. As the ECB's decision is expected to have a deep impact, traders still avoid larger risk positions however.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX rose on Wednesday, in a technical reaction to Tuesday's losses and supported by the strongly bullish API report. The bearish signal the Stochastic oscillator had given in the morning and some economic indicators that were released in the course of the day had only very little impact on oil prices. Even though the normally much observed DoE report didn't make much difference as the draw in crude oil stocks was only half of what the API had reported the night before. What kept prices on their high level were hopes that the Fed would announce more monetary easing measures in the near futures. When these expectations weren't met, market participants sold off the euro and consequently also oil futures that settled only modestly higher in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 909.50 dollars on Wednesday. This was 3.25 dollars above tuesday's settlement. With some 30,000 contracts the traded volume was below average.

OPEC: After the US President Barack Obama announced to exacerbate US sanctions against Tehran, Congress has passed a new bill last night that allows to tighten the current sanctions. This will mainly affect the insurance companies that cooperate with the National Iranian Oil Company or the „National Iranian Tanker Company“. The tighter sanctions are also targeting joint ventures in the mining and oil sector which provide the Iran with oil or gas tankers. Financial institutes helping Iran to issue bonds and companies that are involved in "Gold for oil"-transactions will also be hit by the new sanctions. All companies that violate these laws will allegedly excluded from the US market. China commented critically on these sanctions, particularly the penalties regarding the "Bank of Kunlun Co.", a subsidiary of the public "China National Petroleum Corp.). The sanctions would weigh on the relations between USA and China, the Chinese statement said.

The Stochastic indicator is still regarded slightly bearish at ICE and NYMEX charts this morning. So there is more downside to prices seen even though there are no fresh selling signals. But as one could see yesterday market players still eye a couple of important fundamentals today (ECB meeting, US labor statistics) that are likely to have more impact on oil prices than technical aspects.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures still proved rather nervous in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The API's data and the still steady euro provide some upside but some profit taking at Asian stock markets (see Nikkei 225), the worse than expected Chinese ISM PMI as well as the bearish technical situation weigh on prices. The traded volume is on average. Market participants now eye news regarding monetary policy, the performance of European stock and finance markets, as well as forex trade and today's economic indicators. They also look ahead to the DOE's data.

API's: Crude oil -11.6; distillates -1.4; gasoline -1.3 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.9%
DOE's; Crude oil -6.5; distillates -1.0; gasoline -2.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.8%
Forecasts: Crude oil -1.1; distillates +1.2; gasoline +0.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 1-8)

380cst $621
180cst $656
MGO $960

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 1-8)

380cst $623
180cst $658
MGO $965

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing back up with WTI +$0.98. Singapore paper is reacting with +$0.75 for 180cst and +$2.25 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$1.00 and 380cst +$1.05 with MGO contracts Aug +$0.77 and Sep +$0.79. The cargo market is yet to respond, losing with 180cst -$1.96, 380cst -$2.98 and MGO -$0.25.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices lost somewhat during the morning window yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of 0.23 mbbl to 17.61 mbbl. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $628
180 cst $640
MGO $900

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In the ARA, fuel prices bolstered somewhat, keeping demand subdued. Continuing loading delays and short cutter stocks underpinning the markets. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 612
(1.0 %) :$ 657
180cst: $ 637
(1.0 %):$ 698
MGO 0.1%S: $910

MGO  

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