Thu 8 Mar 2012, 14:16 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures have already edged higher in the early morning, supported by a regain of optimism at European stock exchanges, as traders expected Greece's debt swap to be accepted this evening. The euro, which climbed above 1.3220 dollar, provided some additional support. After first resistances at ICE and NYMEX had been breached, more technical buying orders reinforced momentum. In the afternoon investors will eye the ECB's interest rate decision and US employment statistics.

Oil futures in London and New York traded only slightly changed on Wednesday morning. After Tuesday's losses quotations edged slightly higher until noon keeping track of forex trading, where the euro marked some gains after its rebound off its 1.31 dollar support against the backdrop of a moderately bullish technical situation. In the early afternoon, disappointing figures regarding German industrial orders in January caused some profit taking with the euro, however, which also affected oil prices. In the course of the afternoon positive ADP data on the US labor market limited losses, while investors were waiting for the DOE's oil inventories data which were to be published at 4.30 pm. The latter emerged mixed, providing no decisive impulsions to markets. In the evening market players consequently eyed the euro and equities again, both sharply advancing on a positive sentiment caused by rumors about a new US Fed bond purchase program and a regain of optimism regarding Greece. Oil futures accordingly pulled back from their intraday lows and breached first resistances. This triggered more technical buying orders fuelling the price rally.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at at 1,006.00 dollars on Wednesday. This was unchanged compared to Tuesday's settlement. With some 36,600 contracts the traded volume was far below average.

This morning, the stochastic indicator does not provide any decisive impulsions to market players, neither at ICE nor at NYMEX. It is therefore to be regarded as neutral, see also technical analysis. The technical analysis currently falls behind fundamental factors which have set direction recently. Broker thus stay attentive. As soon as there is any clue as to which result the negotiations regarding Greece's debt cut may bring about, their caution is likely to decrease. Only then decisive impulsions from the technical constellation are to be expected again.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures traded hardly changed on a high level in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. Quotations already trade near their short-term resistances. The traded volume is slightly below average. Market players now look ahead to the developments at European stock markets, new impulsions from forex trade and today's economic data.

API's: Crude oil +4.6; distillates +0.9; gasoline -2.3 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.2%
DOE's; Crude oil +0.8; distillates -1.9; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.3%
Forecasts: Crude oil +0.8; distillates -1.7; gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-3)

380cst $717
180cst $758
MGO $1052

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-3)

380cst $719
180cst $761
MGO $1055

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bouncing up firmly with WTI +$1.57 Singapore paper is countering Yesterday's losses as well with +$6.95 for 180cst and +$7.50 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst +$7.75 and 380cst +$7.75 with MGO contracts Mar +$1.80 and Apr +$1.80. The cargo market is one day behind, reacting to Yesterday's bearishness with 180cst -$10.03, 380cst -$7.32 and MGO -$0.69.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than $7.0 during the morning. The delivered bunker premiums were up by $3.75 to $6.00 above cargo prices yesterday as crude strengthened after the window prompted higher outright prices from sellers. Backend of the curve was much stronger gaining up to $4/mt while prices at the front of the curve lagged both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $737
180 cst $747
MGO $1010

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA started the week on a bearish note, but the current shortage of lsfo is continuing at least until mid this week. Most suppliers will not offer on prompt supplies.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 714
(1.0 %) :$ 769
180cst: $ 738
(1.0 %):$ 776
MGO 0.1%S: $1012

MGO  

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