Wed 8 Feb 2012, 13:36 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices remained steady during morning trade, still supported by the EIA's bullish monthly report according to which oil demand is seen rising in 2012. As the API's latest forecast regarding US oil inventories in no way matched the previous estimates, investors are now tensely eyeing the DOE's data which will be published in the afternoon.

Oil futures traded lower in electronic morning trading when market participants took profit after Monday's rally. Yet the generally bullish market sentiment limited the losses, forcing ICE futures to consolidate on a high level. The price spread between the brent and the WTI widened to almost 20 dollars but when the U.S. dollar rose in the afternoon, profit was taken on the price spread after Goldman Sachs announced a respective recommendation to its customers and the WTI rallied, breaching several resistance lines in the process. The sudden price jump was seen as a mere technical reaction without any fundamental news to back it. The API's oil inventory data released in after-hour trading were regarded as neutral and had no influence on oil prices.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 995.25 dollars on Tuesday. This was 7.00 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 49.700 contracts the traded volume was little below average.

The two lines of the Stochastic oscillator at the ICE charts have converged at the overbought level and will trigger a strong downward correction once they cross. Only the WTI's indicator is still rather bullish but lacks importance after market participants took profit from the price spread between the two benchmarks last night, see also technical analysis. Technical analysts see more upside for ICE futures until Tuesday's highs.

U.S.

Nymex acces gaining. Oil futures are edging higher in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning buoyed by a bullish EIA report. The traded volume is about on average. As there are no important indicators on the agenda today, traders will eye DOE data for direction.

API's: Crude oil -4,5; distillates +0.4; gasoline +4.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +2.0%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil +2.9; distillates -0.8; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 7-2)

380cst $705
180cst $741
MGO $1037

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 7-2)

380cst $707
180cst $743
MGO $1039

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is firm with WTI +$2.50 Singapore paper gaining still with +$4.50 for 180cst and +$4.55 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180 cst +$4.50 and 380cst +$4.75 with MGO Feb contracts at +$0.41 and for Mar +$0.50. The cargo market is gaining now with 180cst +$4.39, 380cst +$4.43 and MGO +$2.08.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up only around +$4.0 during the early morning yesterday. Fundamentally, the market is expected to be weaker as more supplies arrive. The delivered bunker premiums softened and were assessed around $21.0 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $730
180 cst $740
MGO $985

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-2)

380cst $723
180cst $745
MGO $1044

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In Northwest Europe bunker fuel prices were up on stronger outright oil prices and bullish sentiment on the 3.5% hsfo barge market, with another VLCC fixture, and cold weather conditions underpinning the market. High Chinese refinery demand is supporting the arbitrage to Singapore. Yesterday in the MOC Hsfo was traded at 683.75-690.00 usd and Lsfo at 711.00 usd.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 695
(1.0 %) :$ 720
180cst: $ 724
(1.0 %):$ 736
MGO 0.1%S: $985

MGO  

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