Wed 19 Oct 2011, 12:32 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures trade sideways in a tight range during morning trade. Investors look ahead to the DOE's data. In the early morning, the oil complex initially showed a development diverging from the one regarding the euro/dollar-parity. However, it still kept track of the development throughout stock exchanges. As expected, some profit taking caused by the technical constellation pushed oil prices down. The given range remained intact however. Ahead of the publication of the DOE's data and the figures regarding the US housing market, due in the afternoon, market participants avoided larger transactions, especially as insecurity regarding the results of the EU summit scheduled this weekend grows. Currently, oil futures trade higher again, having pared some of their earlier losses.

Yesterday, oil prices traded lower at ICE and NYMEX in electronic trading on a rising dollar and bearish technical signals. Morose indicators from the euro zone and China also weighed. Brent and G.Oil at the ICE lost more ground than did the WTI at the NYMEX that stayed well above its 85.00 dollar support. A rising US producer price index and a better-than-forecast UShousing market index supported the euro later in the day and boosted Wall Street, giving oil markets strong momentum when the technical constellation lacked fresh bearish signals.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 947.75 dollars on Monday. This was 4.25 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 80,500 contracts the traded volume was well above average.

The Stochastic oscillator at the WTI chart is without clear signal this morning while the one at the ICE charts is still bearish. Since the RSI indicator stayed at the overbought level, direction was reversed during NYMEX session due to a lack of selling orders and oil started a late rally that might entail some profit taking today. But ahead of the release of the DOE data analysts do not expect much volatility. The WTI crude is supported at 86.35 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 89.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 111.90 dollars, its first support is at 109.80 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil futures edge higher in East Asiaand Globex electronic trade this morning on positive market sentiment after last night's APIdata and a declining dollar. The traded volume is well below average. The WTI December contract is much more actively traded, the contract for November delivery expiring tomorrow.

API's: Crude oil -2.2; distillates -2.2; gasoline -5.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -1.0%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.3; distillates -1.5; gasoline +1.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-10)

380cst $657
180cst $703
MGO $978
Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-10)

380cst $659
180cst $706
MGO $981

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is back on its bullish track, surging with WTI +$1.98 Singapore paper is turning as well with +$4.75 for 180cst and +$5.05 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$4.75 and 380cst +$4.95 with MGO Nov contracts at +$1.39 and for Dec at +$1.39. The cargo market is reflecting Yesterday's losses with 180cst -$15.07, 380cst -$14.80 and MGO -$3.48.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than $15.00 during the Platts window yesterday as crude weakened. The market remains supported with strong buying of bunker grade physical cargoes. The delivered bunker premiums were around $18.00 above the cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps lost more than $7.00 in the front of the forward curve for 180cst Cargo FOBpapers. Losses were app. $1.00 lower at the end of the curve. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $665
180 cst $673
MDO $900

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The Northwest European bunker market continued to see strong sentiment Yesterday despite an almost $2/barrel day-on-day fall in Brent crude amid ongoing eurozone debt concerns. High sulfur fuel oil prices in Rotterdamand Antwerpwere still supported by ongoing shortages. Most suppliers in Rotterdamreport operational delays at loading installations, keeping bunker premiums over FOBRotterdamfirm. LSFO loading for prompt in Antwerpis difficult. Shortages are keeping the prices up. In the MOC 1% was traded at $ 649-650 with hs $ 628-631.50 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 645
(1.0 %) :$ 665
180cst: $ 670
(1.0 %):$ 693
MGO 0.1%S: $ 955

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