Thu 31 Mar 2011, 15:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Technical indicators: bullish

Oil prices keep rising in electronic trading and several resistance lines were breached across the complex as the stronger euro/weaker dollar and the bullish technical constellation support.

Oil prices traded in a narrow range Yesterday, as analysts had expected, dropping temporarily after the DOE report showed a larger-than-forecast gain in supplies as fuel demand declined to the lowest level in four months, suggesting rising fuel costs may be crimping demand. WTI prices ended lower after choppy, thin trading, pressured by record-high stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for NYMEX benchmark crude. Yet the downside was limited by Libya and Middle East uncertainty.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at at 978.00 dollars Wednesday night. This was 0.25 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. Volume with some 41,800 deals below average.

Oil prices remained within their narrow short-term downside trend Yesterday. The Stochastic indicators for the brent and the gasoil have turned bullish, whilst the one for the WTI crude does not yet give a buying signal. Should the red and the lack line of the indicator cross, there will be more upward potential. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 104.00 dollars, the first resistance at 104.80 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 115.60 dollars, its first support is at 113.50 dollars. First resistance lines have already been breached in morning trading.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices are rising in very thin trading and Globex electronic trade this morning, reversing earlier losses and hitting first resistance lines that are expected to be breached in the course of today's session. The traded volume is well below average.

APIs: crude oil +2.945; distillates +0.112; gasoline -1.953 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.7%

DOEs: crude oil + 2.945; distillates +0.710; gasoline -2.684 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +/- 0%

Forecasts: crude oil +1.200; distillates -0.200; gasoline -1.500 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.3%

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-3)

380 cst $634
180 cst $655
MDO $994

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 30-3)

380 cst $636
180 cst $657
MDO $997

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining still with WTI +$0.27 Singapore paper is more bullish with +$4.98 for 180 cst and +$5.75 for 380 cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$4.75 and 380cst +$4.80 with MGO Apr contracts at +$0.56 and for May at +$ 0.52 The cargo market starts to track crude and paper with 180cst +$4.06, 380cst +$5.09 and MGO +$1.01.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $4.00/mt despite the sluggish crude movement during the Platts window. The Asian crack spread continues to be firm on buying which supported the fuel oil market. The bunker delivered premiums soften to $8.00/mt above cargo price yesterday. Both markets are trading higher this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $652
180 cst $667
MDO $995

Fujairah (delivered indications 31-3)

380cst: $647
180cst: $676
MGO: $985

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $620
(1.0%): $673
180cst: $645
(1.0%): $702 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $986


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