Fri 22 Oct 2010, 11:31 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Technical indicators:

Oil prices collapsed in late NYMEX session and after-hours trading after new U.S. economy data painted a picture of an economy stuck in slow-growth mode, reinforcing views the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further next month to try to reinvigorate the recovery which helped the dollar up and weighed on oil prices.

Crude oil failed to breach important 80.00 dollar support Thursday, so prices keep trading within the existing medium-term trendchannel. Oil prices are still in a downtrend and are seen falling as low as the long-term support line in the medium-term. Only if the WTI crude contract falls through 79,80 dollar support, will the downtrend become steeper (lilac line). RSI and Stochastic indicator are in neutral territory this morning. First WTI crude support line seen at 80.00 dollars today, first resistance line at 81.35 dollars. Oil prices are seen trading in a narrow range within the existing trendchannel today. Only a drop below 79.80 dollars (WTI crude) would trigger more selling orders, but analysts do not think this is likely to happen. The prices will continue to follow the movements of the dollar closely. Due to the absence of any important data, traders are expected to be cautious ahead of this weekend's G20 summit in South Korea.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 2,50 to 4,00 dollars lower at about 701,00 dollars/ton after settling at 704,25 dollars (official settlement price) Thursday night. This was 1,75 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. Volume with some 46,100 deals on average.

USA: The index of U.S. leading indicators rose by 0,3% in September for the third straight month, signaling the recovery will extend into 2011. Philly Fed index stands at 1.00 in October, when economists were expecting the index at 1.4 after -0.7 in September. Figures greater than zero signal growth. Initial unemployment claims fell by 23,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Oct. 16. That was more than the 7,000 drop economists had expected, but the previous week's figure was revised up significantly to 475,000 from 462,000. As a result, claims are now back to similar levels last seen in early October.

U.S.

Nymex Access :Oil futures are rising in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning on the back of a rising euro/falling dollar and rising equities in Asia. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-10)

380cst: $463
180cst: $483
MGO: $740

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-10)

380cst: $465
180cst: $485
MGO: $742

Singapore(correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is dropping sharply with WTI -$1.52. Singapore paper has the whole week been reluctant to follow any drops and is only showing a slight drop 180cst -$6.30 and 380cst -$6.05 for Nov, and Dec 180 cst -$6.25 and 380cst -$6.00 with MGO Nov contracts +$1.21 and for Dec at -$1.17. The cargo market is still reacting to Wednesday's bounce with 180cst +$7.86, 380cst +$6.27 and MGO -$1.36.

The Singapore fuel oil markets reclaimed back the previous day loss, up more than $6.0/mt on stronger crude closing. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging $1.0 to $2.5 above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $473
180cst: $463
MGO: $694

Fujairah (delivered indications 21/10)

380cst: $469
180cst: $490
MGO: $735

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 58KT was traded in the MOC between 445,50-447,50 with Litasco as the main seller to Gunvor as the main buyer.

NWE HSFO market sources talked of the possibility of an arbitrage to Singapore. economics for which were for now seemingly closed. Physical HSFO barge trading in ARA continued as it had throughout the week, with values largely following crude. The Northwest Europe to Med arbitrage, however, continued to be closed with the differential between FOB NWE and CIF Med cargoes seen at $10.25/mt. Market sources described the NWE LSFO market to be stable as traders elected to make a cash-and-carry move over prompt sale, but arbitrage barrels and supply from European refineries were still weighing on fundamentals. 1% FOB NWE cargoes were assessed at a $5/mt discount to comparable front-month swaps, and sources said they expected the structure to remain largely stable in the short-term.

Steady bunker demand in Gibraltar kept the Med FOB high sulfur fuel oil cargo market balanced, with the differential to NWE unchanged on the day at minus $2.25/mt. Platts assessed NWE FOB barges as down $2.75/mt day-on-day at $446.50/mt, and the fuel oil crack remained in the minus $12/barrel range, as it had all week.

380cst: $450
(1.0%): $475
180cst: $465
(1.0%): $492
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $708

MGO  

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