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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed up 0.32 last night to $46.36 and WTI closed at $45.27 up 0.29. Well, the year of political shocks is what 2016 will be known for, won't it? Donald Trump as President and Brexit. The reaction that everyone thought on the cards was about as accurate as the US election polls as crude rallied but eventually closed 0.7% up. I think the markets don't really know how to react until more clarity is known regarding US policy, but one thing is clear: Trump is a business man, not a politician. He is the first ever President to have no experience politically, but democracy has spoken. What is clear is that, in theory, he should cut red tape, dampen overly bureaucratic market regulations and open up energy policy to ensure the US burns the energy it inherently produces. Getting it through the Senate may prove timely and of course the repercussions regarding foreign policy and climate change are still to reverberate. Interesting times ahead so expect volatility.

I read yesterday that Trump being elected in to the White House makes OPEC's decision that much harder. How? I disagree with that entirely. This year has taught us that no action from OPEC regarding a cut or a freeze apart from empty promises has yielded a rally and then no actual action. So if other geopolitical factors cause flat price to go up what do they need to do apart from nothing? I think every OPEC minister would have at some point yesterday felt somewhat of a relief that perhaps prices will rise and they can keep output where it is. Let's bear in mind that the US is still the world's biggest consumer of oil. If more coal and oil is now allowed to be used for power generation in the US, then I think we could very quickly see this 45-50 range move to 55-60 within the next couple of months.

Economic data/events

* 8am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
* 9am: IEA monthly market report
* ~11am: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry
* 1:30pm: U.S. initial jobless claims, Nov. 5, est. 260k (prior 265k)
* 1:30pm: U.S. continuing claims Oct. 29, est. 2025k (prior 2026k)
* 2:15pm: U.S. Federal reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks about the U.S. economic outlook at an event sponsored by Commerce Bank in St. Louis, Missouri
* 2:45pm: Bloomberg consumer comfort, Nov. 6 (prior 44.6)
* Today:
* PJK's weekly ARA oil product stockpiles report
* Iraqi loading programs (December)
* Abu Dhabi Petroleum Conference
* The Economist Energy Summit, London
* Argus Mexican Refined Products Conference, Houston
* EPP Forum, Moscow
* Petrobras earnings

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec16 - 262.50 / 264.50
Jan17 - 261.50 / 263.50
Feb17 - 261.00 / 263.00
Mar17 - 261.25 / 263.25
Apr17 - 261.50 / 263.50
May17 - 261.50 / 263.50
Q1-17 - 261.00 / 263.50
Q2-17 - 261.75 / 264.25
Q3-17 - 263.50 / 266.50
Q4-17 - 265.00 / 268.00
CAL17 - 262.75 / 266.25
CAL18 - 270.25 / 275.25
CAL19 - 267.25 / 273.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec16 - 269.25 / 271.25
Jan17 - 268.00 / 270.00
Feb17 - 268.00 / 270.00
Mar17 - 268.25 / 270.25
Apr17 - 268.50 / 270.50
May17 - 268.50 / 270.50
Q1-17 - 267.75 / 270.25
Q2-17 - 268.50 / 271.00
Q3-17 - 270.25 / 273.25
Q4-17 - 272.25 / 275.25
CAL17 - 270.00 / 273.50
CAL18 - 278.00 / 283.00
CAL19 - 276.00 / 282.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec16 242.25 / 244.25
Jan17 243.50 / 245.50
Feb17 244.50 / 246.50
Mar17 245.25 / 247.25
Apr17 246.00 / 248.00
May17 246.50 / 248.50
Q1-17 245.00 / 247.50
Q2-17 247.00 / 249.50
Q3-17 248.50 / 251.50
Q4-17 249.50 / 252.50
CAL17 246.75 / 250.25
CAL18 254.75 / 259.75
CAL19 250.75 / 256.75

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For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.