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Crude oil futures declined this morning, as investors were cautious ahead of the conclusion of the European Central Bank's monthly policy meeting later in the day.

Oil futures in London and New York followed technical and fundamentally bearish guidelines early Wednesday morning. Downward movement remained limited as breaking news were lacking in the first half of the day and traders waited for the US oil inventory data to be released in the afternoon. Some market players took advantage of the downward movement covering their short positions. Therefore, prices successively regained ground again in the course of the afternoon. Some short-term resistances were already breached before the release of the DOE's data. After the release of the official data on stockpiles oil futures rallied. The figures had both bullish and bearish aspects but the bullish influence predominated market players' first reaction. Besides, there were rumours about a pipeline explosion in Saudi-Arabia via Twitter, which haven't been confirmed yet, as well as rumours about a shut down of the Libyan Sharara oil field after a group of heavily armed fighters attacked the oil field. Even though oil futures erased most of the gains posted in the evening, finally prices settled higher at ICE and NYMEX.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 729.50 USD on Wednesday, this is 3.25 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 56,900 deals the traded volume (front month) was slightly above average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator have already crossed at the WTI chart triggering a buying signal. At the Brent chart, the lines have met but a bullish signal will only be triggered if they cross sustainably. While the RSI at the WTI and the Gasoil chart stays neutral, another buying signals might be generated at the Brent chart if the indicator climbs above the 30% line. Considered the buying signal at the WTI chart, oil futures have probably built a bottom near last week's lows. Therefore, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish. Should confirming buying signals be triggered at the Brent chart, technical buying pressure will increase in the short-term. If the bullish signal at the WTI chart neutralises however, the technical analysis will lose its bullish influence. In this case, the downward trends which are still intact will favor tests of the downside.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX stayed in a narrow trading range in the early morning as market players are waiting for further news concerning Saudi Arabia and especially Lybia. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and will eye the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and the economic indicators which are to be released today.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.9; Distillates -2.2; Gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +0.5; Distillates -0.7; Gasoline -1.4 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -0.6; Distillates +0.2; Gasoline +0.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-11)
380cst $451
180cst $559
MGO $835

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-11)
380cst $461
180cst $520
MGO $838

Singapore (delivered indications 6-11)

WTI is gaining with +$0.57 Singapore paper is up with +$0.75 for 180cst with +$1.50 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst ±$0.00 and 380cst with ±$0.00 with MGO contracts Nov bullish with +$0.10 and in Dec with +$0.11. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$4.69, 380cst with -$5.50 and MGO with -$1.63.

380cst $457
180cst $472
MGO $717

Fujairah (delivered indications 6-11)

380cst $475
180cst $530
MGO $950

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers 5-11:
380cst : $442
(1.0 %) : $452
MGO 0.1%S: $708