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Market in Brief

Yesterday Crude prices rebounded strongly led by a report of a drop in Saudi Arabia oil production in September by around -0.33 mbpd to 9.36 mbpd. The fall in production is apparently more due to technical issues rather than a voluntary shift in energy policy. However, it did help lifting crude prices. The December WTI futures settled at $82.09/bbl, up +$1.57 and Brent rallied by +$2.12 to close at $86.83/bbl. Also yesterday’s rally in US equities had a spillover and helped the energy complex. The US weekly jobless claims came out within expectations at 283 k and the October preliminary Manufacturing number was slightly lower at 56,20 vs 57 but still very healthy . In China, September New Home prices fell -1,3% all across the country (69 out of 70 cities) compared to last September. This morning, crude prices are trading around -0,70% lower.

Fuel oil specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil markets saw another relatively quiet day. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam was assessed app. $1/mt down vs previous close. Suppliers again reported tight product avails with no barges available until beginning next week. After a mid-week public holiday the Singapore fuel oil prices reopened app. -$5.5 down during. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a slight draw of -0.22 mbbl to 20.49 mbbl while delivered bunker premiums softened to app. $6.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

Forward indications

Product	Nov	Dec	Jan	Q115	Q215	2015
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	81,33	81,03	80,61	80,62	80,21	80,36
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	86,36	86,78	87,62	88,23	88,95	89,58
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	739,08	741,17	753,67	-	-	-
LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	-	-	-	759,17	766,06	768,39
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	450,00	448,50	452,25	455,75	462,75	464,75
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	449,25	446,00	450,00	453,75	460,75	462,75
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	458,75	457,00	459,25	463,00	470,75	473,25
3% no. 6 USGC WB	68,90	69,10	69,33	69,84	70,96	71,84
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	474,50	475,00	476,75	479,50	485,00	487,50
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	738,25	740,25	753,25	748,25	756,25	758,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	460,25	458,75	462,50	464,00	472,00	475,00
Physical Singapore 380 CST	484,75	485,25	487,00	487,75	494,25	497,75

Focus of the day: Piraeus

Although crude showed some gains yesterday, the overall feeling for the week was bearish and 3.5% CIF MED on average was still lower this week by $9.5 compared to last week. Demand in Piraeus was satisfactory; this is the last month of cruiser traffic as we are heading into winter and weather is turning colder. Bad weather has not affected supplies in Piraeus anchorage, although Malta and other MED ports are facing problems in deliveries. Both refineries in Greece have very good product avails and LSFO is available both in Piraeus and Kali Limenes.

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Existing Home Sales	Medium	21-Oct	10:00 AM	Sep	4.95M	5.05M	5.17M
Core CPI	Medium	22-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	0.10%	0.00%	0.10%
Initial Claims	Medium	23-Oct	8:30 AM	18-Oct	295K	264K	283K
Continuing Claims	Medium	23-Oct	8:30 AM	11-Oct	2400K	2389K	2351K
Leading Indicators	Medium	23-Oct	10:00 AM	Sep	0.60%	0.20%	0.80%
New Home Sales	Medium	24-Oct	10:00 AM	Sep	450K	504K	-