Wed 8 Oct 2014, 11:28 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



U.S. oil futures fell to the lowest level since April 2013 this morning, as investors positioned themselves for a bearish weekly supply report later in the day. Crude oil prices fell in Asia this morning as industry data showed a solid build in U.S. crude oil stocks.

Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX traded slightly lower in European trading on Tuesday, weighed down by the disappointing German indicators as market participants took profit from Monday's late gains. Still, in the absence of any important news to give direction, investors were cautious and consolidated their positions at noon. Gasoil traded within first resistance and first support line before the IMF in its latest report revised down its forecast for global economic growth in 2014 and 2015 and the EIA revised down its forecast for global oil demand in its report released earlier than usual. As a consequence ICE and NYMEX prices lost considerable ground and breached various support lines. After the release of a bearish API report selling pressure increased in after-hour trading.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 777.00 USD on Tuesday, this is 1.75 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 38,900 deals the traded volume (front month) was well below average.

The Stochastic indicator's two lines crossed last night at the WTI chart and is now seen bearish. On the Brent and the gasoil chart neither the Stochastic nor the RSI are giving any fresh signals at all. Long-term downtrends are still intact, opening more downside to prices after the breach of key supports at the level of the longtime lows hit this week and the week before. Even though the technical analysis favours a continuation of the downtrend, we regard the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning in the absence of fresh selling signals at the ICE.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil prices at ICE and NYMEX collapsed this morning in Asia and Globex electronic trading, weighed down by the bearish reports of the IMF, the EIA and the API and the release of a disappointing Chinese indicator. The traded volume at NYMEX is well above average at this time of the day. Today investors will eye the development at stock and forex markets as well as the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and the DoE's report on U.S. petroleum inventories. There are no important economic indicators on the agenda today.

API: Crude oil +5.1; Distillates -1.1; Gasoline +2.5 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecast: Crude oil +1.4; Distillates -1.3; Gasoline -1.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-10)
380cst $532
180cst $622
MGO $896

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 8-10)
380cst $536
180cst $633
MGO $887

Singapore (delivered indications 8-10)

WTI is losing with -$2.03 Singapore paper is down with -$10.65 for 180cst with -$10.50 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$10.85 and 380cst with -$10.35 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$1.68 and in Nov with -$1.62. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$14.22, 380cst losing with -$12.84 and MGO losing with -$1.30.

The Singapore fuel oil prices lost more than -$12.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday after a long weekend. Bunker demand was strong and delivered bunker premiums were hovering between +$8.0 and +$9.5 above cargo prices.

380cst $541
180cst $556
MGO $787

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-10)

380cst $562
180cst $610
MGO $970

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The avails of HSFO and LSFO in all of ARA are very tight.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $525
(1.0 %) : $535
MGO 0.1%S: $760

MGO  

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