Fri 25 Apr 2014, 12:18 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures slipped lower during early European trading hours on this morning, as markets eyed the release of U.S. consumer sentiment data later in the day, but remained supported as concerns over fresh tensions in Ukraine prompted investors to turn to safer assets.

Oil markets remained relatively calm on Wednesday morning as market participants avoided larger transactions. Until the afternoon, oil futures at ICE consolidated in a narrow range in thin trading, with investors waiting for new cues from Ukraine or the DOE's report on US oil inventories. Since the data the API had released the night before had provided a rather bullish impression compared to the survey, selling pressure (fundamentals) slightly waned. As to the technical constellation, the situation remained rather bearish as the stochastic indicator had already given a selling signal at the Brent and the Gasoil chart on Tuesday. Thus, the bullish and the bearish factors offset each other in the course of the day. Since there were no negative news from Ukraine, either, market players focused on the DOE's data due at 4.30 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon. Compared to the survey and the figures of the API, the DOE's report came in clearly bearish and so oil futures plummeted in late-afternoon trade. The selling pressure the DOE's data had generated only ebbed after 6 p.m.. Oil futures made up for some of their losses due to the instable situation in Ukraine. Market players - particularly those in London - still avoided speculative short-risks cutting their short positions in late trade. Whilst Brent even climbed back above its first support, Gasoil settled with losses. WTI only slightly retreated after the release of the DOE's data. According to analysts, this is due to the draw in crude oil stockpiles in Cushing, the delivery hub for WTI futures.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 918.00 USD on Wednesday. This was -2.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 52,000 deals, the traded volume was on average.

Oil futures have declined for two consecutive days after the stochastic indicator had given a selling signal. Even though the indicator is still slightly bearish, the RSI hasn't provided a confirming selling signal so far. Thus, the downward potential generated by the selling signal of the stochastic indicator is likely to have been largely spent. Only if oil futures drop below yesterday's lows and/or the RSI slips below 70%, will the technical selling pressure increase again. Accordingly, we assess the technical constellation as rather neutral this morning, despite the still slightly bearish stochastic indicator at ICE charts.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil futures remain clearly above yesterday's lows still struggling to find a clear direction. The traded volume at NYMEX is clearly below average at this time of day showing that market players stay cautious. Investors are monitoring the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep an eye on today's economic indicators as well as at the developments in Ukraine.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-4)
380cst $604
180cst $677
MGO $997

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 25-4)
380cst $619
180cst $665
MGO $995

Singapore (delivered indications 25-4)

WTI is down with -$0.40. Singapore paper is up with +$0.60 for 180cst and +$1.50 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$0.75 and 380cst +$1.95 with MGO contracts being bullish May +$0.65 and Jun +$0.70. The cargo market has lowered with 180 cst -$1.16, 380cst -$0.84 and MGO slightly down with -$0.73.

380cst $593
180cst $610
MGO $938

Fujairah (delivered indications 25-4)

380cst $600
180cst $640
MGO $986

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $585
(1.0 %) : $630
180cst: $625
MGO 0.1%S: $893

MGO  

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