Fri 21 Feb 2014, 12:41 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures edged lower during early European trading hours this morning, but still remained within close distance of a four-month high as the release of globally positive U.S. data on Thursday lent support to the dollar.

Oil prices opened lower Thursday on a bearish API oil inventory report and disappointing economic indicators from China and the UE. The selling signal the RSI gave at the gasoil chart also pushed prices lower. First support lines at the ICE and NYMEX charts were breached before noon, market participants being cautious ahead of the release of the DoE's oil stocks. An encouraging manufacturing PMI in the US, rising tensions in Venezuela as well as production losses in Africa and the latest US cold snap helped prices back above their supports at the opening of NYMEX session. When the DoE's data that were released at 5.00 p.m. gave a rather bearish outlook oil temporarily lost the ground regained before but soon recovered when traders opted for safety ahead of the weekend. Prices in London and New York thus settled near their day's highs in the end.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 937.50 USD on Thursday. This was 3.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 48,800 deals, the traded volume was little below average.

The Stochastic indicator's lines have crossed at the ICE charts, giving a bearish signal. The RSI rose above the 70 line again and is thus neutral. The steep uptrends are still intact while the Stochastic gives a rather bearish signal and tempts traders to take profit. Only if the lower limits of the uptrends are breached or if the RSI crosses the 70 line again will a new selling signal be triggered and a downward correction is seen.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: Oil futures are trading in a narrow range in Asia and in electronic trading this morning loosing a bit of ground and testing first support lines after Thursday's rise. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Investors eye the development at the stock and forex markets and wait for today's economic data.

DOE: Crude oil +1.0; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -0.5; Distillates -0.7; Gasoline +1.4 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.8; Distillates -1.8; Gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-2)
380cst $610
180cst $689
MGO $1025

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-2)
380cst $634
180cst $667
MGO $1023

Singapore (delivered indications 21-2)

WTI is slightly bearish with -$0.02. Singapore paper remains bullish with +$1.00 for 180cst and +$1.25 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst +$1.00 and 380cst +$1.60 with MGO contracts being bearish Mar +$0.12 and Apr +$0.17. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$0.91, 380cst +$0.72 and MGO +$0.13.

Singapore onshore fuel oil stocks were at a five week high of 19.842mbbl. FO paper market where seen bit firmer reflected in Dubai/180 cracks closed at -11.58 from Wednesdays close -11.97 and FO180 time spreads in the front as well closed firmer at 3.00/mt from Wednesdays close at 2.0/mt. Overall FO looks to recover before weekend on a well bid physical play by dominant players in Singapore. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $622
180cst $633
MGO $940

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-2)

380cst0 $620
180cst $650
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $590
(1.0 %) : $640
180cst: $621
MGO 0.1%S: $ 888

MGO  

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